arXiv:2505.16636cs.LG2025-05NeurIPS被引 3

提出新方法提升多变量模型校准精度,生成更可靠的预测分布。

Multivariate Latent Recalibration for Conditional Normalizing Flows

  • 在隐空间中定义概率校准新标准,实现多变量模型后处理校准。
  • 实验显示该方法显著降低隐空间校准误差和负对数似然值。
  • 适合需要高可信度多变量预测的场景,如医疗决策与图像建模。

准确刻画给定协变量下多变量响应变量的完整条件分布,对于可信赖的决策至关重要。然而,参数错误或校准不足的多变量模型可能无法良好逼近响应变量的联合分布,导致预测不可靠、决策次优。现有校准方法主要局限于单变量情形;而符合性预测虽能生成具有覆盖率保证的多变量预测区域,却无法提供完整的概率密度函数。为此,本文首先引入一种新的隐空间校准概念,用于评估条件归一化流中隐变量的概率校准情况。其次,提出隐空间重校准(Latent Recalibration, LR)方法,通过学习隐空间变换,在有限样本下具备校准误差的理论边界。相比现有方法,LR 能生成具有显式多变量密度函数的重校准分布,同时保持计算高效。在表格数据与图像数据上的大量实验表明,LR 持续改善隐空间校准误差与负对数似然性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Reliably characterizing the full conditional distribution of a multivariate response variable given a set of covariates is crucial for trustworthy decision-making. However, misspecified or miscalibrated multivariate models may yield a poor approximation of the joint distribution of the response variables, leading to unreliable predictions and suboptimal decisions. Furthermore, standard recalibration methods are primarily limited to univariate settings, while conformal prediction techniques, despite generating multivariate prediction regions with coverage guarantees, do not provide a full probability density function. We address this gap by first introducing a novel notion of latent calibration, which assesses probabilistic calibration in the latent space of a conditional normalizing flow. Second, we propose latent recalibration (LR), a novel post-hoc model recalibration method that learns a transformation of the latent space with finite-sample bounds on latent calibration. Unlike existing methods, LR produces a recalibrated distribution with an explicit multivariate density function while remaining computationally efficient. Extensive experiments on both tabular and image datasets show that LR consistently improves latent calibration error and the negative log-likelihood of the recalibrated models.

隐空间校准归一化流多变量预测

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