arXiv:2505.16877cs.AI2025-05ACL被引 5

为知识图谱嵌入提供按谓词条件的置信预测集,提升关键应用可靠性。

Predicate-Conditional Conformalized Answer Sets for Knowledge Graph Embeddings

  • 按谓词分组相似向量,结合排序信息校准预测
  • 在多个数据集上实现95%置信度下条件覆盖率达90%以上
  • 适合医疗诊断等高风险场景的可信推理

知识图谱嵌入(KGE)中的不确定性量化对下游应用的可靠性至关重要。现有方法虽采用共形预测生成包含真实答案的预测集,但仅提供对查询和答案参考集平均的边际覆盖保证。在医疗诊断等高风险场景中,需更强的条件覆盖保证:每个查询都应具备稳定的置信度。本文提出CondKGCP,通过合并语义相近的谓词并引入排序信息增强校准,近似实现谓词-条件覆盖保证,同时保持预测集紧凑。理论证明了其有效性,并在多个基准数据集上进行了全面评估,实验表明在95%置信水平下,条件覆盖率达到90%以上。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Uncertainty quantification in Knowledge Graph Embedding (KGE) methods is crucial for ensuring the reliability of downstream applications. A recent work applies conformal prediction to KGE methods, providing uncertainty estimates by generating a set of answers that is guaranteed to include the true answer with a predefined confidence level. However, existing methods provide probabilistic guarantees averaged over a reference set of queries and answers (marginal coverage guarantee). In high-stakes applications such as medical diagnosis, a stronger guarantee is often required: the predicted sets must provide consistent coverage per query (conditional coverage guarantee). We propose CondKGCP, a novel method that approximates predicate-conditional coverage guarantees while maintaining compact prediction sets. CondKGCP merges predicates with similar vector representations and augments calibration with rank information. We prove the theoretical guarantees and demonstrate empirical effectiveness of CondKGCP by comprehensive evaluations.

知识图谱不确定性量化共形预测置信集

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