arXiv:2505.16946cs.CYcs.LG2025-05

用机器学习分析纽约房产所有权种族差异,发现白人占比远超人口比例。

NY Real Estate Racial Equity Analysis via Applied Machine Learning

  • 通过融合LSTM与地理信息的模型预测产权人种族分布
  • 白人拥有房产比例是其人口比例的2倍以上,少数族裔普遍被低估
  • 适合关注社会公平、城市政策和数据驱动治理的研究者

本研究分析纽约州及纽约市地块级房地产所有权模式,揭示种族不平等现象。采用先进的种族/族裔推断模型(LSTM+Geo结合XGBoost筛选,验证准确率达89.2%),将产权人预测种族构成与人口普查数据中的居民构成进行对比。分别使用全模型(全州范围)与仅姓名的LSTM模型(纽约市)评估地理上下文对预测及不平等估算的影响。结果显示:白人持有的房产数量与价值远超其人口占比,而黑人、西班牙裔和亚裔社区在产权人中严重不足。这种差距在少数族裔占多数的社区尤为明显,尽管居民以非白人为主,但产权人仍以白人为主。公司所有制(如有限责任公司、信托等)进一步压缩了城市少数族裔的自有住房机会。研究按白人、黑人、西班牙裔和亚裔主导区分类,识别出极端所有权偏差区域,并比较城乡及郊区模式。结果凸显房产所有权中的持续种族不公,反映深层历史与社会经济力量,强调数据驱动方法对解决此类问题的重要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This study analyzes tract-level real estate ownership patterns in New York State (NYS) and New York City (NYC) to uncover racial disparities. We use an advanced race/ethnicity imputation model (LSTM+Geo with XGBoost filtering, validated at 89.2% accuracy) to compare the predicted racial composition of property owners to the resident population from census data. We examine both a Full Model (statewide) and a Name-Only LSTM Model (NYC) to assess how incorporating geospatial context affects our predictions and disparity estimates. The results reveal significant inequities: White individuals hold a disproportionate share of properties and property value relative to their population, while Black, Hispanic, and Asian communities are underrepresented as property owners. These disparities are most pronounced in minority-majority neighborhoods, where ownership is predominantly White despite a predominantly non-White population. Corporate ownership (LLCs, trusts, etc.) exacerbates these gaps by reducing owner-occupied opportunities in urban minority communities. We provide a breakdown of ownership vs. population by race for majority-White, -Black, -Hispanic, and -Asian tracts, identify those with extreme ownership disparities, and compare patterns in urban, suburban, and rural contexts. The findings underscore persistent racial inequity in property ownership, reflecting broader historical and socio-economic forces, and highlight the importance of data-driven approaches to address these issues.

种族公平机器学习城市研究房地产

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