早停能避免扩散模型过拟合，关键在训练时长与数据量匹配

Diffusion probabilistic models have become a cornerstone of modern generative AI, yet the mechanisms underlying their generalization remain poorly understood. In fact, if these models were perfectly minimizing their training loss, they would just generate data belonging to their training set, i.e., memorize, as empirically found in the overparameterized regime. We revisit this view by showing that, in highly overparameterized diffusion models, generalization in natural data domains is progressively achieved during training before the onset of memorization. Our results, ranging from image to language diffusion models, systematically support the empirical law that memorization time is proportional to the dataset size. Generalization vs. memorization is then best understood as a competition between time scales. We show that this phenomenology is recovered in diffusion models learning a simple probabilistic context-free grammar with random rules, where generalization corresponds to the hierarchical acquisition of deeper grammar rules as training time grows, and the generalization cost of early stopping can be characterized. We summarize these results in a phase diagram. Overall, our results support that a principled early-stopping criterion - scaling with dataset size - can effectively optimize generalization while avoiding memorization, with direct implications for hyperparameter transfer and privacy-sensitive applications.