arXiv:2505.17344cs.LGcs.AI2025-05被引 2

用注意力机制改进随机森林,提升挂号爽约预测的准确率与可解释性。

A Multi-Head Attention Soft Random Forest for Interpretable Patient No-Show Prediction

  • 引入软分割和多头注意力,让模型动态关注关键患者行为
  • 在真实数据上达到93.72%准确率,各项指标均优于传统模型
  • 支持双层次特征重要性分析,帮助医生理解爽约原因

未到诊的预约门诊会严重影响医疗机构运营效率与患者健康连续性。为减少此类现象,本文提出一种融合注意力机制的多头注意力软随机森林(MHASRF)模型,通过概率化软分割替代传统硬分割,使不同树结构可对特定患者行为分配不同注意力权重。实验表明,该模型在多项指标上表现优异:准确率93.72%,特异性94.77%,精确率90.23%,召回率89.38%,F1分数91.54%,AUC达97.87%,全面超越决策树、随机森林、逻辑回归和朴素贝叶斯等基线模型。此外,模型支持树级与注意力级双重特征重要性分析,深入揭示患者爽约的关键影响因素,具备强鲁棒性、高适应性与良好可解释性,有助于医疗机构优化资源配置。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Unattended scheduled appointments, defined as patient no-shows, adversely affect both healthcare providers and patients' health, disrupting the continuity of care, operational efficiency, and the efficient allocation of medical resources. Accurate predictive modeling is needed to reduce the impact of no-shows. Although machine learning methods, such as logistic regression, random forest models, and decision trees, are widely used in predicting patient no-shows, they often rely on hard decision splits and static feature importance, limiting their adaptability to specific or complex patient behaviors. To address this limitation, we propose a new hybrid Multi-Head Attention Soft Random Forest (MHASRF) model that integrates attention mechanisms into a random forest model using probabilistic soft splitting instead of hard splitting. The MHASRF model assigns attention weights differently across the trees, enabling attention on specific patient behaviors. The model exhibited 93.72% accuracy, 94.77% specificity, 90.23% precision, 89.38% recall, a 91.54% F1 score and AUC 97.87%, demonstrated high and balance performance across metrics, outperforming decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, and naive bayes models overall. Furthermore, MHASRF was able to identify key predictors of patient no-shows using two levels of feature importance (tree level and attention mechanism level), offering deeper insights into patient no-show predictors. The proposed model is a robust, adaptable, and interpretable method for predicting patient no-shows that will help healthcare providers in optimizing resources.

医疗预测可解释性随机森林注意力机制

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