arXiv:2505.17435cs.LG2025-05NeurIPS被引 5

不通过离散化实现多校准,直接用树模型优化损失函数。

Discretization-free Multicalibration through Loss Minimization over Tree Ensembles

  • 用深度为2的树集成直接最小化损失函数,避免输出空间离散化。
  • 在多个数据集上表现优于或等于现有方法,即使按离散化标准评估也如此。
  • 适合需要高精度预测且对校准性要求高的场景,如公平决策系统。

近年来,多校准已成为确保预测器在大量重叠子群体中保持校准的重要学习目标。现有方法通常通过离散化预测器输出空间并迭代调整输出值来实现多校准,但该方法偏离了标准的经验风险最小化(ERM)流程,引入舍入误差和敏感超参数,并可能扭曲输出,影响下游决策。本文提出一种无需离散化的多校准方法,直接在深度为2的决策树集成上优化经验风险目标。该方法可使用LightGBM等现成的树集成学习工具实现。在满足我们称之为损失饱和的技术条件下,算法可严格实现多校准。在多个数据集上的实验表明,该条件在实践中始终成立。所提方法在各项指标上均达到或超过现有方法表现,甚至在与基线共享离散化粒度的评估下依然领先。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In recent years, multicalibration has emerged as a desirable learning objective for ensuring that a predictor is calibrated across a rich collection of overlapping subpopulations. Existing approaches typically achieve multicalibration by discretizing the predictor's output space and iteratively adjusting its output values. However, this discretization approach departs from the standard empirical risk minimization (ERM) pipeline, introduces rounding error and additional sensitive hyperparameter, and may distort the predictor's outputs in ways that hinder downstream decision-making. In this work, we propose a discretization-free multicalibration method that directly optimizes an empirical risk objective over an ensemble of depth-two decision trees. Our ERM approach can be implemented using off-the-shelf tree ensemble learning methods such as LightGBM. Our algorithm provably achieves multicalibration, provided that the data distribution satisfies a technical condition we term as loss saturation. Across multiple datasets, our empirical evaluation shows that this condition is always met in practice. Our discretization-free algorithm consistently matches or outperforms existing multicalibration approaches--even when evaluated using a discretization-based multicalibration metric that shares its discretization granularity with the baselines.

多校准树模型经验风险最小化公平性

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