arXiv:2505.17929cs.LG2025-05被引 3

用机器学习预测神经科重症患者住院时长,为医院管理提供参考。

Predicting Length of Stay in Neurological ICU Patients Using Classical Machine Learning and Neural Network Models: A Benchmark Study on MIMIC-IV

  • 对比经典模型与神经网络在静态和时序数据上的表现。
  • 随机森林在静态数据上准确率达68%,BERT在时序数据上达80%。
  • 首次针对神经疾病患者做住院时长预测,适合医疗资源规划者。

重症监护室(ICU)是处理危重病例的关键部门。近年来,机器学习在医疗领域广泛应用,尤其因全球新冠疫情,ICU管理成为医院运营的重要环节。本研究基于MIMIC-IV数据集,探索多种机器学习方法对神经系统疾病患者住院时长(LOS)的预测能力。评估模型包括经典机器学习算法(KNN、随机森林、XGBoost、CatBoost)与神经网络模型(LSTM、BERT、时间融合变换器)。鉴于住院时长常被建模为分类任务,本研究将其分为三类:少于2天、少于7天、7天及以上。作为首个针对神经疾病患者的住院时长预测研究,本文不追求超越现有方法,而是评估各类模型在此特定场景下的有效性。结果显示,在静态数据上,随机森林表现最佳,准确率、精确率、召回率和F1分数均为0.68;在时序数据上,BERT优于LSTM,各项指标均达到0.80。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Intensive care unit (ICU) is a crucial hospital department that handles life-threatening cases. Nowadays machine learning (ML) is being leveraged in healthcare ubiquitously. In recent years, management of ICU became one of the most significant parts of the hospital functionality (largely but not only due to the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic). This study explores multiple ML approaches for predicting LOS in ICU specifically for the patients with neurological diseases based on the MIMIC-IV dataset. The evaluated models include classic ML algorithms (K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, XGBoost and CatBoost) and Neural Networks (LSTM, BERT and Temporal Fusion Transformer). Given that LOS prediction is often framed as a classification task, this study categorizes LOS into three groups: less than two days, less than a week, and a week or more. As the first ML-based approach targeting LOS prediction for neurological disorder patients, this study does not aim to outperform existing methods but rather to assess their effectiveness in this specific context. The findings provide insights into the applicability of ML techniques for improving ICU resource management and patient care. According to the results, Random Forest model proved to outperform others on static, achieving an accuracy of 0.68, a precision of 0.68, a recall of 0.68, and F1-score of 0.67. While BERT model outperformed LSTM model on time-series data with an accuracy of 0.80, a precision of 0.80, a recall of 0.80 and F1-score 0.80.

住院时长预测重症监护机器学习神经疾病

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