提出新评估指标,精准衡量模型在自信时的预测可靠性。
Trust, or Don't Predict: Introducing the CWSA Family for Confidence-Aware Model Evaluation
- 基于置信度加权,奖励高自信正确预测
- 能有效识别模型过自信误判等细微缺陷
- 适合医疗、自动驾驶等高风险场景评估
当前机器学习系统越来越多地利用置信度进行选择性预测,即在模型不自信时放弃预测。然而,传统指标如准确率、期望校准误差(ECE)和风险-覆盖率曲线下面积(AURC)无法真实反映预测的可靠性:它们或忽略置信度,或通过平均稀释局部信息,或未能对过自信误判进行合理惩罚,这在实际系统中可能造成严重后果。本文提出两种新指标——置信度加权选择性准确率(CWSA)及其归一化版本CWSA+,提供一种原则性强且可解释的评估方法,用于在置信度阈值下评价预测模型。与现有方法不同,该指标明确奖励高自信准确性,并惩罚过自信错误。二者具备阈值局部性、可分解性,适用于评估与部署场景中对信任与风险的量化。在真实数据集(MNIST、CIFAR-10)及人工模型变体(校准、过自信、欠自信、随机、完美)上进行大量实验,结果表明CWSA和CWSA+均能有效检测细微故障模式,在信任敏感测试中优于经典指标。研究证实,CWSA是构建与评估安全关键领域选择性预测系统的可靠基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In recent machine learning systems, confidence scores are being utilized more and more to manage selective prediction, whereby a model can abstain from making a prediction when it is unconfident. Yet, conventional metrics like accuracy, expected calibration error (ECE), and area under the risk-coverage curve (AURC) do not capture the actual reliability of predictions. These metrics either disregard confidence entirely, dilute valuable localized information through averaging, or neglect to suitably penalize overconfident misclassifications, which can be particularly detrimental in real-world systems. We introduce two new metrics Confidence-Weighted Selective Accuracy (CWSA) and its normalized variant CWSA+ that offer a principled and interpretable way to evaluate predictive models under confidence thresholds. Unlike existing methods, our metrics explicitly reward confident accuracy and penalize overconfident mistakes. They are threshold-local, decomposable, and usable in both evaluation and deployment settings where trust and risk must be quantified. Through exhaustive experiments on both real-world data sets (MNIST, CIFAR-10) and artificial model variants (calibrated, overconfident, underconfident, random, perfect), we show that CWSA and CWSA+ both effectively detect nuanced failure modes and outperform classical metrics in trust-sensitive tests. Our results confirm that CWSA is a sound basis for developing and assessing selective prediction systems for safety-critical domains.
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