arXiv:2505.19145stat.MEcs.LG2025-05中稿 · The Annals of Appl…被引 10

LLM需统计学支持,以应对不确定性与黑箱问题。

Do Large Language Models (Really) Need Statistical Foundations?

  • LLM本质是统计模型,依赖数据与随机生成
  • 黑箱特性使传统分析失效,需统计方法解耦复杂性
  • 适合关注可信AI、评估与可解释性的研究者

大语言模型(LLMs)作为处理非结构化数据的新范式,已广泛应用于多个领域。本文通过两个论点探讨统计学对LLM发展与应用是否真正必要:首先,由于LLM高度依赖数据且生成过程具有随机性,其本质上是统计模型,统计洞察对处理变异性与不确定性至关重要;其次,因模型规模庞大、架构复杂,且开发常重经验性能而轻理论可解释性,导致闭式或机械分析通常不可行,因而需要灵活且已被证明有效的统计方法。为支持上述观点,论文指出对齐、水印、不确定性量化、评估及数据混合优化等方向亟需统计方法,并已开始贡献价值。最后讨论认为,未来统计研究将形成多元化的‘拼图’式专题,而非单一统一理论,呼吁统计学界及时参与LLM研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large language models (LLMs) represent a new paradigm for processing unstructured data, with applications across an unprecedented range of domains. In this paper, we address, through two arguments, whether the development and application of LLMs would genuinely benefit from foundational contributions from the statistics discipline. First, we argue affirmatively, beginning with the observation that LLMs are inherently statistical models due to their profound data dependency and stochastic generation processes, where statistical insights are naturally essential for handling variability and uncertainty. Second, we argue that the persistent black-box nature of LLMs -- stemming from their immense scale, architectural complexity, and development practices often prioritizing empirical performance over theoretical interpretability -- renders closed-form or purely mechanistic analyses generally intractable, thereby necessitating statistical approaches due to their flexibility and often demonstrated effectiveness. To substantiate these arguments, the paper outlines several research areas -- including alignment, watermarking, uncertainty quantification, evaluation, and data mixture optimization -- where statistical methodologies are critically needed and are already beginning to make valuable contributions. We conclude with a discussion suggesting that statistical research concerning LLMs will likely form a diverse ``mosaic'' of specialized topics rather than deriving from a single unifying theory, and highlighting the importance of timely engagement by our statistics community in LLM research.

大模型统计学可解释性不确定性

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