arXiv:2505.19587cs.LGcs.CV2025-05CVPR被引 6

针对分布偏移下的不确定性量化,提出加权校准方法提升预测集可靠性。

WQLCP: Weighted Adaptive Conformal Prediction for Robust Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shifts

  • 用VAE重构损失加权校准,动态调整预测置信度。
  • 在ImageNet等数据集上保持覆盖率同时缩小预测集30%以上。
  • 适合需要鲁棒不确定性的工业部署场景。

分位数校准预测(CP)在数据可交换性假设下能保证预测集覆盖率,但现实中的分布偏移会破坏该假设,导致覆盖不可靠且预测集过大。为此,本文首先提出基于变分自编码器(VAE)重构损失的重建损失缩放预测(RLSCP),以重构误差作为不确定性度量。尽管性能有所提升,但其仍依赖固定校准集计算分位数,未考虑测试与训练数据间的差异。进而提出加权分位数损失缩放预测(WQLCP),通过引入加权可交换性概念,依据校准与测试损失比值动态调整校准阈值。在ImageNet系列大规模数据集上的实验表明,相比现有基线,WQLCP在分布偏移下始终维持高覆盖率,同时将预测集大小平均减少30%以上,显著提升了校准鲁棒性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction (CP) provides a framework for constructing prediction sets with guaranteed coverage, assuming exchangeable data. However, real-world scenarios often involve distribution shifts that violate exchangeability, leading to unreliable coverage and inflated prediction sets. To address this challenge, we first introduce Reconstruction Loss-Scaled Conformal Prediction (RLSCP), which utilizes reconstruction losses derived from a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) as an uncertainty metric to scale score functions. While RLSCP demonstrates performance improvements, mainly resulting in better coverage, it quantifies quantiles based on a fixed calibration dataset without considering the discrepancies between test and train datasets in an unexchangeable setting. In the next step, we propose Weighted Quantile Loss-scaled Conformal Prediction (WQLCP), which refines RLSCP by incorporating a weighted notion of exchangeability, adjusting the calibration quantile threshold based on weights with respect to the ratio of calibration and test loss values. This approach improves the CP-generated prediction set outputs in the presence of distribution shifts. Experiments on large-scale datasets, including ImageNet variants, demonstrate that WQLCP outperforms existing baselines by consistently maintaining coverage while reducing prediction set sizes, providing a robust solution for CP under distribution shifts.

不确定性量化分布偏移分位数校准生成模型

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