用物理化学约束的深度学习模型,实现快速精准空气污染预测
PCDCNet: A Surrogate Model for Air Quality Forecasting with Physical-Chemical Dynamics and Constraints
- 融合气象、排放和化学反应机制,构建带物理约束的图神经网络
- 72小时预报精度达当前最优,计算成本降低超90%
- 已上线实时平台,适合环保部门与公众使用
空气质量预测对公共健康和环境管理至关重要,但受排放、气象与化学转化复杂交互影响,仍具挑战。传统数值模型如CMAQ和WRF-Chem虽有物理基础,但计算成本高且依赖不确定的排放清单。深度学习模型虽高效,却因缺乏物理约束而泛化能力差。为此,我们提出PCDCNet,一种结合数值建模原理与深度学习的代理模型。该模型显式引入排放、气象影响及领域先验约束,模拟污染物生成、传输与消散过程。通过图结构空间传输建模、循环结构时间累积以及局部交互表征增强,PCDCNet在72小时站点级PM2.5和O3预测中达到当前最优性能,同时显著降低计算开销。模型已部署于在线平台,提供免费实时预报,展现其可扩展性与社会价值。通过使深度学习与物理一致性对齐,PCDCNet为环境治理提供了可解释、实用的解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Air quality forecasting (AQF) is critical for public health and environmental management, yet remains challenging due to the complex interplay of emissions, meteorology, and chemical transformations. Traditional numerical models, such as CMAQ and WRF-Chem, provide physically grounded simulations but are computationally expensive and rely on uncertain emission inventories. Deep learning models, while computationally efficient, often struggle with generalization due to their lack of physical constraints. To bridge this gap, we propose PCDCNet, a surrogate model that integrates numerical modeling principles with deep learning. PCDCNet explicitly incorporates emissions, meteorological influences, and domain-informed constraints to model pollutant formation, transport, and dissipation. By combining graph-based spatial transport modeling, recurrent structures for temporal accumulation, and representation enhancement for local interactions, PCDCNet achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance in 72-hour station-level PM2.5 and O3 forecasting while significantly reducing computational costs. Furthermore, our model is deployed in an online platform, providing free, real-time air quality forecasts, demonstrating its scalability and societal impact. By aligning deep learning with physical consistency, PCDCNet offers a practical and interpretable solution for AQF, enabling informed decision-making for both personal and regulatory applications.
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