自动化构建城市光伏参数,提升发电预测精度
A fully automated urban PV parameterization framework for improved estimation of energy production profiles
- 融合遥感与语义分割,自动推断屋顶光伏布局与倾角方位
- 在荷兰埃因霍温验证,92%相关性,73%区域误差在±25%内
- 适合电网规划与高比例光伏地区,可跨区域扩展
准确的屋顶光伏(PV)参数化对电网管理与大规模太阳能部署至关重要。现有高精度光伏配置数据缺乏,常导致依赖粗略假设,影响大范围光伏性能建模的时间与数值准确性。本研究提出一种全自动框架,创新性整合遥感数据、语义分割、多边形矢量优化、倾角-方位角估计及组件排布推断,生成丰富属性的分布式光伏地理信息系统(GIS)数据集。在荷兰埃因霍温的应用中,该方法与配电系统运营商(DSO)记录的相关系数(R²)达0.92,73%街区的容量估算误差在±25%以内。通过精确捕捉实际系统参数(如倾角、方位角、组件排布),并无缝对接先进性能模型,显著提升配电网光伏发电预测可靠性。以高光伏渗透社区为实验中心,基于配置信息的模拟使能量生成建模的平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)相比传统假设方法降低最高达160%。此外,其模块化设计依赖广泛可用的地理空间资源,可拓展至多样区域,为城市级太阳能集成提供可扩展解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate parameterization of rooftop photovoltaic (PV) installations is critical for effective grid management and strategic large-scale solar deployment. The lack of high-fidelity datasets for PV configuration parameters often compels practitioners to rely on coarse assumptions, undermining both the temporal and numerical accuracy of large-scale PV performance modeling. This study introduces a fully automated framework that innovatively integrates remote sensing data, semantic segmentation, polygon-vector refinement, tilt-azimuth estimation, and module layout inference to produce a richly attributed GIS dataset of distributed PV. Applied to Eindhoven (the Netherlands), the method achieves a correlation ($R^2$) of 0.92 with Distribution System Operator (DSO) records, while capacity estimates for 73$\%$ of neighborhoods demonstrate agreement within a $\pm$25$\%$ margin of recorded data. Additionally, by accurately capturing actual system configuration parameters (e.g., tilt, azimuth, module layout) and seamlessly linking them to advanced performance models, the method yields more reliable PV energy generation forecasts within the distribution networks. Centering our experiments toward a high PV-penetration community, configuration-aware simulations help to reduce Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of energy generation modeling by up to 160$\%$ compared to the conventional assumption-based approaches. Furthermore, owing to its modular design and reliance on readily available geospatial resources, the workflow can be extended across diverse regions, offering a scalable solution for robust urban solar integration.
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