解决移动预测中的长尾分布问题,提升模型对冷门地点的预测能力。
Adaptive Location Hierarchy Learning for Long-Tailed Mobility Prediction
- 基于大语言模型自动构建城市专属的地点层级结构,减少人工干预。
- 设计自适应层级损失函数,使模型在头部和尾部地点间均衡学习。
- 可适配多种模型架构,提升冷门地点预测准确率最高达16.59%。
人类移动预测对位置推荐、城市规划等应用至关重要,旨在根据历史轨迹预测用户下一访问地点。现有模型虽能捕捉序列模式,但受地点访问频次长尾分布影响,导致预测偏差且泛化性差。为此,我们提出首个与模型架构无关的插件式解决方案——自适应地点层级学习(ALOHA)。受马斯洛需求理论启发,利用轨迹数据挖掘头部与尾部地点的共性迁移知识,缓解长尾偏差。具体地,通过大语言模型与思维链提示自动生成城市定制化的地点层级结构,仅需少量人工验证;进一步设计自适应层级损失(AHL),结合戈布尔扰动与节点级自适应加权,实现多层级信号利用与语义关联组内的探索。在多种先进模型上的实验表明,ALOHA在保持效率与鲁棒性的前提下,将长尾预测性能提升最高达16.59%。代码已开源:https://github.com/Star607/ALOHA。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Human mobility prediction is crucial for applications ranging from location-based recommendations to urban planning, which aims to forecast users' next location visits based on historical trajectories. While existing mobility prediction models excel at capturing sequential patterns through diverse architectures for different scenarios, they are hindered by the long-tailed distribution of location visits, leading to biased predictions and limited applicability. This highlights the need for a solution that enhances the long-tailed prediction capabilities of these models with broad compatibility and efficiency across diverse architectures. To address this need, we propose the first architecture-agnostic plugin for long-tailed human mobility prediction, named \textbf{A}daptive \textbf{LO}cation \textbf{H}ier\textbf{A}rchy learning (ALOHA). Inspired by Maslow's theory of human motivation, we exploit and explore common mobility knowledge of head and tail locations derived from human mobility trajectories to effectively mitigate long-tailed bias. Specifically, we introduce an automatic pipeline to construct city-tailored location hierarchies based on Large Language Models (LLMs) and Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompts, capturing high-level mobility semantics with minimal human verification. We further design an Adaptive Hierarchical Loss (AHL) that rebalances learning through Gumbel disturbance and node-wise adaptive weighting, enabling both exploitation of multi-level signals and exploration within semantically related groups. Extensive experiments across multiple state-of-the-art models demonstrate that ALOHA consistently improves long-tailed mobility prediction performance by up to 16.59\% while maintaining efficiency and robustness. Our code is at https://github.com/Star607/ALOHA.
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