arXiv:2505.20048cs.LGcs.SY2025-05被引 3

对比三种Transformer模型在1500次实验中的表现,提出更稳定可解释的预测框架。

Synthetic Time Series Forecasting with Transformer Architectures: Extensive Simulation Benchmarks

  • 构建统一框架,测试三种Transformer模型在不同复杂度下的时间序列预测能力。
  • 在10种合成信号上验证,发现模型对噪声和长时序依赖的敏感性存在共性。
  • 引入基于柯尔莫哥洛夫理论的新框架,提升非线性系统预测的稳定性与可解释性。

时间序列预测在能源、金融和医疗等领域至关重要,准确预测有助于应对不确定性决策。尽管基于Transformer的模型在序列建模中表现优异,但其在时间序列应用中仍受限于对噪声敏感、长程依赖处理困难以及缺乏对时序结构的归纳偏置。本文提出一个统一且系统化的基准框架,评估三种主流Transformer预测架构——Autoformer、Informer和PatchTST,每种均包含最小、标准和完整三种变体,代表不同复杂度与建模能力。我们在涵盖五种片段长度和五种预测时距的十类合成信号上,进行了超过1500次受控实验,覆盖干净与含噪条件。分析揭示了各模型家族中的稳定模式。为进一步推进该方向,我们提出增强型框架Deep Koopformer,融合算子理论的潜在状态建模,显著提升在非线性与混沌动力系统中的稳定性与可解释性。结果表明,基于柯尔莫哥洛夫理论的Transformer是一种有前景的混合方法,适用于噪声大、复杂的现实场景,兼具鲁棒性、可解释性与理论基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in domains such as energy, finance, and healthcare, where accurate predictions inform decision-making under uncertainty. Although Transformer-based models have demonstrated success in sequential modeling, their adoption for time series remains limited by challenges such as noise sensitivity, long-range dependencies, and a lack of inductive bias for temporal structure. In this work, we present a unified and principled framework for benchmarking three prominent Transformer forecasting architectures-Autoformer, Informer, and Patchtst-each evaluated through three architectural variants: Minimal, Standard, and Full, representing increasing levels of complexity and modeling capacity. We conduct over 1500 controlled experiments on a suite of ten synthetic signals, spanning five patch lengths and five forecast horizons under both clean and noisy conditions. Our analysis reveals consistent patterns across model families. To advance this landscape further, we introduce the Koopman-enhanced Transformer framework, Deep Koopformer, which integrates operator-theoretic latent state modeling to improve stability and interpretability. We demonstrate its efficacy on nonlinear and chaotic dynamical systems. Our results highlight Koopman based Transformer as a promising hybrid approach for robust, interpretable, and theoretically grounded time series forecasting in noisy and complex real-world conditions.

时间序列Transformer预测框架可解释性

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