arXiv:2505.20536stat.MLcs.LG2025-05被引 2

提出CoDEAL模型,用神经网络处理面板数据中的异质性与非线性因果效应。

Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning for Heterogeneous Panel Data Models

  • 用神经网络建模复杂协变量影响和潜在因子结构
  • 通过矩阵补全精准估计缺失反事实结果
  • 适合有面板数据、需分析异质因果效应的研究者

本文研究存在协变量效应时,对异质性处理效应的估计问题。提出一种新型协变量调整深度因果学习(CoDEAL)方法,结合灵活模型结构与强大神经网络架构,统一处理面板单元与协变量效应的异质性和非线性。CoDEAL将由前馈神经网络参数化的非线性协变量效应组件,与由多输出自编码器建模的非线性因子结构相结合,构建异质性因果面板模型。非线性协变量组件可灵活捕捉协变量对结果的复杂影响;非线性因子分析能有效提取数据面板中固有的横截面与时间依赖关系。该潜在结构信息被整合进定制矩阵补全算法,从而更准确地填补缺失的反事实结果。此外,多输出自编码器显式建模单元间异质性,提升潜在因子可解释性。本文建立了反事实估计收敛性的理论保证,并通过大量模拟实验和真实数据应用验证了方法的优越性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

This paper studies the task of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in causal panel data models, in the presence of covariate effects. We propose a novel Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning (CoDEAL) for panel data models, that employs flexible model structures and powerful neural network architectures to cohesively deal with the underlying heterogeneity and nonlinearity of both panel units and covariate effects. The proposed CoDEAL integrates nonlinear covariate effect components (parameterized by a feed-forward neural network) with nonlinear factor structures (modeled by a multi-output autoencoder) to form a heterogeneous causal panel model. The nonlinear covariate component offers a flexible framework for capturing the complex influences of covariates on outcomes. The nonlinear factor analysis enables CoDEAL to effectively capture both cross-sectional and temporal dependencies inherent in the data panel. This latent structural information is subsequently integrated into a customized matrix completion algorithm, thereby facilitating more accurate imputation of missing counterfactual outcomes. Moreover, the use of a multi-output autoencoder explicitly accounts for heterogeneity across units and enhances the model interpretability of the latent factors. We establish theoretical guarantees on the convergence of the estimated counterfactuals, and demonstrate the compelling performance of the proposed method using extensive simulation studies and a real data application.

因果推断面板数据深度学习

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