用神经网络模拟海洋长期变化,误差更小、物理更合理。
NeuralOM: Neural Ocean Model for Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Simulation
- 分步修正误差,逐步优化预测结果
- 60天预报误差比最好基线低13.3%
- 适合气候与海洋模拟研究者使用
长期高保真模拟海洋等慢变物理系统是科学计算中的根本挑战。传统自回归机器学习模型因误差累积导致预报快速退化。为此,我们提出NeuralOM,一种通用神经算子框架,用于模拟复杂慢变动力学。其核心包含两项创新:(1) 渐进残差修正框架,将预报任务分解为一系列细粒度精修步骤,有效抑制长期误差积累;(2) 物理引导图网络,通过自适应消息传递机制显式建模多尺度物理相互作用,如梯度驱动流和乘性耦合,提升物理一致性并保持计算效率。我们在全球次季节到季节(S2S)海洋模拟这一难题上验证了NeuralOM。大量实验表明,NeuralOM不仅在预报精度和长期稳定性上超越现有最优模型,还在极端事件模拟中表现优异。例如,在60天预报提前期下,相比最佳基线,其均方根误差(RMSE)降低13.3%,提供了一种稳定、高效且具备物理意识的数据驱动科学计算范式。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Long-term, high-fidelity simulation of slow-changing physical systems, such as the ocean and climate, presents a fundamental challenge in scientific computing. Traditional autoregressive machine learning models often fail in these tasks as minor errors accumulate and lead to rapid forecast degradation. To address this problem, we propose NeuralOM, a general neural operator framework designed for simulating complex, slow-changing dynamics. NeuralOM's core consists of two key innovations: (1) a Progressive Residual Correction Framework that decomposes the forecasting task into a series of fine-grained refinement steps, effectively suppressing long-term error accumulation; and (2) a Physics-Guided Graph Network whose built-in adaptive messaging mechanism explicitly models multi-scale physical interactions, such as gradient-driven flows and multiplicative couplings, thereby enhancing physical consistency while maintaining computational efficiency. We validate NeuralOM on the challenging task of global Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) ocean simulation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that NeuralOM not only surpasses state-of-the-art models in forecast accuracy and long-term stability, but also excels in simulating extreme events. For instance, at a 60-day lead time, NeuralOM achieves a 13.3% lower RMSE compared to the best-performing baseline, offering a stable, efficient, and physically-aware paradigm for data-driven scientific computing. Code link: https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/NeuralOM.
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