arXiv:2505.21147cs.LG2025-05中稿 · CVPR被引 1

用未标注数据提升预测置信集的稳定性,解决标签少时性能不稳问题。

Semi-Supervised Conformal Prediction With Unlabeled Nonconformity Score

  • 利用未标注数据通过近邻匹配估计伪标签非符合度得分,结合标签数据校准。
  • 在仅20个标签数据下,覆盖误差降低77%,且随未标注数据量增加误差趋近理论极限。
  • 适合标签稀缺场景,如医疗、工业检测等需高置信度预测的领域。

置信预测(Conformal Prediction, CP)是一种强大的不确定性量化框架,可生成具有覆盖率保证的预测集合。分裂置信预测依赖校准过程中的标签数据,但在真实场景中标签数据往往有限,导致不同运行间覆盖率表现不稳定。为解决此问题,我们拓展了CP至半监督设置,提出SemiCP新范式,利用标签与未标签数据共同进行校准。为此,引入未标注非符合度得分——近邻匹配(NNM)得分:在校准阶段,通过最相似的伪标签样本估计未标注样本的非符合度得分,同时保留原始标签数据得分。理论上,我们证明SemiCP的平均覆盖偏差(即经验边际覆盖率与目标覆盖率之差的绝对值)可按$\/mathcal{O}(1/\ oot{}{N})$速率显著下降并收敛至一误差项,其中$N$为未标注数据量。大量实验验证了SemiCP在标签数据受限时的有效性:在仅有20个标签样本、4000个未标注样本的情况下,于常见基准上平均覆盖偏差最多降低77%。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction (CP) is a powerful framework for uncertainty quantification, generating prediction sets with coverage guarantees. Split conformal prediction relies on labeled data in the calibration procedure. However, the labeled data is often limited in real-world scenarios, leading to unstable coverage performance in different runs. To address this issue, we extend CP to the semi-supervised setting and propose SemiCP, a new paradigm that leverages both labeled and unlabeled data for calibration. To achieve this, we introduce an unlabeled nonconformity score, Nearest Neighbor Matching (NNM) score. Specifically, NNM estimates the nonconformity scores of unlabeled samples using their most similar pseudo-labeled counterparts during calibration, while maintaining the original scores for labeled data. Theoretically, we demonstrate that the average coverage gap (i.e., the absolute difference between the empirical marginal coverage and the target coverage) of SemiCP can decrease significantly at a rate $\mathcal{O}(1/\sqrt{N})$ and converge to an error term, where $N$ is the number of unlabeled data. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of SemiCP under limited labeled data, reducing the average coverage gap by up to 77% on common benchmarks with 4000 unlabeled examples, when there are only 20 labeled examples.

置信预测半监督不确定性量化

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