arXiv:2505.21882cs.LG2025-05

提出新型动量评分体系,实现网球比赛多粒度动量分析

HydraNet: Momentum-Driven State Space Duality for Multi-Granularity Tennis Tournaments Analysis

  • 构建基于状态空间对偶的HydraNet框架,融合32维性能特征
  • 在百万级温网与美网数据上验证,动量评分可预测不同阶段胜负
  • 适合体育分析、智能裁判与竞技策略研究者使用

网球比赛中,动量是影响赛果的关键动态因素,但其在得分、局、盘、整场比赛等多粒度上的建模与分析仍不充分。本文定义新型动量评分(MS)以量化选手在多粒度比赛中的动量水平,并设计基于动量驱动状态空间对偶的HydraNet框架,整合发球、接发、心理、疲劳等32维异构性能特征。该框架包含捕捉显性动量的滑动窗口机制和通过跨局状态传播捕捉隐性动量的模块,引入对抗学习方法强化双人对决层面的动量对抗性,并采用协同-对抗注意力机制(CAAM)捕捉个体及对手间微观动量变化。研究构建了覆盖2012–2023年温网与2013–2023年美网的百万级跨赛事数据集,实验表明,该框架所生成的动量评分能有效揭示动量在不同粒度下的影响,为网球动量建模提供新范式。据我们所知,这是首个系统探索并有效建模职业网球多粒度动量的工作。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In tennis tournaments, momentum, a critical yet elusive phenomenon, reflects the dynamic shifts in performance of athletes that can decisively influence match outcomes. Despite its significance, momentum in terms of effective modeling and multi-granularity analysis across points, games, sets, and matches in tennis tournaments remains underexplored. In this study, we define a novel Momentum Score (MS) metric to quantify a player's momentum level in multi-granularity tennis tournaments, and design HydraNet, a momentum-driven state-space duality-based framework, to model MS by integrating thirty-two heterogeneous dimensions of athletes performance in serve, return, psychology and fatigue. HydraNet integrates a Hydra module, which builds upon a state-space duality (SSD) framework, capturing explicit momentum with a sliding-window mechanism and implicit momentum through cross-game state propagation. It also introduces a novel Versus Learning method to better enhance the adversarial nature of momentum between the two athletes at a macro level, along with a Collaborative-Adversarial Attention Mechanism (CAAM) for capturing and integrating intra-player and inter-player dynamic momentum at a micro level. Additionally, we construct a million-level tennis cross-tournament dataset spanning from 2012-2023 Wimbledon and 2013-2023 US Open, and validate the multi-granularity modeling capability of HydraNet for the MS metric on this dataset. Extensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that the MS metric constructed by the HydraNet framework provides actionable insights into how momentum impacts outcomes at different granularities, establishing a new foundation for momentum modeling and sports analysis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to explore and effectively model momentum across multiple granularities in professional tennis tournaments.

网球分析动量建模状态空间多粒度

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