用心理画像生成智能体模拟公众情绪,预测更准。
Sentiment Simulation using Generative AI Agents
- 用2485人调查数据构建带心理特征的智能体
- 模拟情绪准确率达81%~86%,比传统方法高
- 适合政策测试、舆论预测等需要前瞻分析的场景
传统情感分析依赖表面语言模式和回顾性数据,难以捕捉人类情绪的心理与情境动因,限制其在政策测试、叙事建构和行为预测等需前瞻洞察的应用。本文提出一种基于心理丰富画像的生成式AI智能体情感模拟框架。智能体源自对2,485名菲律宾受访者进行的全国代表性调查,融合人口统计学信息与经验证的人格特质、价值观、信念及社会政治态度。框架包含三个阶段:(1) 通过类别或情境化编码实现智能体具身;(2) 暴露于真实世界的政治经济情境;(3) 生成情感评分并附解释理由。使用二次加权准确性(QWA)评估智能体生成结果与人类回答的一致性。情境化编码在复现原始调查响应中达到92%一致率。在情感模拟任务中,智能体准确率达81%–86%,情境化画像显著优于类别编码(p < 0.0001,Cohen's d = 0.70)。模拟结果在重复试验中波动仅±0.2–0.5%(标准差),对情景表述变化具有鲁棒性(p = 0.9676,Cohen's d = 0.02)。研究建立了一种可扩展的心理驱动型情感建模框架,标志着情感分析从回顾分类向基于情绪形成心理机制的前瞻性动态模拟转变。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traditional sentiment analysis relies on surface-level linguistic patterns and retrospective data, limiting its ability to capture the psychological and contextual drivers of human sentiment. These limitations constrain its effectiveness in applications that require predictive insight, such as policy testing, narrative framing, and behavioral forecasting. We present a robust framework for sentiment simulation using generative AI agents embedded with psychologically rich profiles. Agents are instantiated from a nationally representative survey of 2,485 Filipino respondents, combining sociodemographic information with validated constructs of personality traits, values, beliefs, and socio-political attitudes. The framework includes three stages: (1) agent embodiment via categorical or contextualized encodings, (2) exposure to real-world political and economic scenarios, and (3) generation of sentiment ratings accompanied by explanatory rationales. Using Quadratic Weighted Accuracy (QWA), we evaluated alignment between agent-generated and human responses. Contextualized encoding achieved 92% alignment in replicating original survey responses. In sentiment simulation tasks, agents reached 81%--86% accuracy against ground truth sentiment, with contextualized profile encodings significantly outperforming categorical (p < 0.0001, Cohen's d = 0.70). Simulation results remained consistent across repeated trials (+/-0.2--0.5% SD) and resilient to variation in scenario framing (p = 0.9676, Cohen's d = 0.02). Our findings establish a scalable framework for sentiment modeling through psychographically grounded AI agents. This work signals a paradigm shift in sentiment analysis from retrospective classification to prospective and dynamic simulation grounded in psychology of sentiment formation.
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