用对称结构提升股票价格预测,效果显著优于主流模型。
An Efficient deep learning model to Predict Stock Price Movement Based on Limit Order Book
- 采用孪生网络分别处理买卖盘数据,共享参数增强泛化能力。
- 在14只军工股上,75%以上基线模型性能提升,短期预测效果更优。
- 适合高频交易研究者,尤其关注订单簿建模与注意力机制应用。
在高频交易中,利用限价订单簿(LOB)建模股价波动至关重要,但原始数据高维且波动剧烈,现有深度学习模型常难以有效捕捉价格变化规律,尤其缺乏精心设计的特征。我们发现,原始订单簿数据在买方和卖方之间具有内在对称性,而买卖价差表现出更强的稳定性与更低复杂度。基于此,提出一种新方法:采用孪生架构,使用共享参数的模块分别处理买卖盘数据。将该方法应用于多个主流强基线模型,并在中国A股市场14只军工行业股票的数据上验证其有效性。同时,将多头注意力(MHA)与长短期记忆(LSTM)模块结合,探究其在股价预测中的作用。实验以原始数据及广泛使用的订单流不平衡(OFI)特征为输入,对比多个强基线模型。结果表明,该方法在超过75%的情况下提升了基线模型性能(排除表现不佳的多层感知机,即MLP)。此外,多头注意力在较短预测窗口内显著增强模型表现。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In high-frequency trading (HFT), leveraging limit order books (LOB) to model stock price movements is crucial for achieving profitable outcomes. However, this task is challenging due to the high-dimensional and volatile nature of the original data. Even recent deep learning models often struggle to capture price movement patterns effectively, particularly without well-designed features. We observed that raw LOB data exhibits inherent symmetry between the ask and bid sides, and the bid-ask differences demonstrate greater stability and lower complexity compared to the original data. Building on this insight, we propose a novel approach in which leverages the Siamese architecture to enhance the performance of existing deep learning models. The core idea involves processing the ask and bid sides separately using the same module with shared parameters. We applied our Siamese-based methods to several widely used strong baselines and validated their effectiveness using data from 14 military industry stocks in the Chinese A-share market. Furthermore, we integrated multi-head attention (MHA) mechanisms with the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) module to investigate its role in modeling stock price movements. Our experiments used raw data and widely used Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) features as input with some strong baseline models. The results show that our method improves the performance of strong baselines in over 75$% of cases, excluding the Multi-Layer Perception (MLP) baseline, which performed poorly and is not considered practical. Furthermore, we found that Multi-Head Attention can enhance model performance, particularly over shorter forecasting horizons.
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