用新型神经网络提升西非城市天气预报精度,尤其在降雨量低的地区表现更优。
Localized Weather Prediction Using Kolmogorov-Arnold Network-Based Models and Deep RNNs
- 采用基于样条的KAN与TKAN模型,替代传统RNN处理复杂非线性天气数据
- 温度预测准确率超99.9%,降水预测在少雨区误差显著降低
- 适合气象研究者与灾害预警系统开发者参考
天气预报对管理风险和经济规划至关重要,尤其在热带非洲,极端天气严重影响生计。现有方法常难以应对该地区复杂的非线性气候模式。本研究对比了LSTM、GRU、BiLSTM、BiGRU等深度循环神经网络,以及基于Kolmogorov-Arnold表示的KAN与TKAN模型,在科特迪瓦阿比让和卢旺达基加利两地进行日度气温、降水和气压预测。研究引入两种定制化TKAN变体,分别将原SiLU激活函数替换为GeLU和Mish。基于2010至2024年站点气象数据,所有模型在标准回归指标下评估。KAN在阿比让(温度$R^2=0.9986$)和基加利($R^2=0.9998$)均实现极佳气温预测,均方误差小于0.0014 $^ ext{°C}^2$;TKAN变体在低降水环境下显著降低绝对误差。定制版TKAN在两个数据集上均优于标准TKAN。经典RNN在气压预测中仍具竞争力($R^2 ext{约} 0.83{-}0.86$),优于基于KAN的模型。结果表明,基于样条的神经架构在高效与数据效率方面具有潜力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Weather forecasting is crucial for managing risks and economic planning, particularly in tropical Africa, where extreme events severely impact livelihoods. Yet, existing forecasting methods often struggle with the region's complex, non-linear weather patterns. This study benchmarks deep recurrent neural networks such as $\texttt{LSTM, GRU, BiLSTM, BiGRU}$, and Kolmogorov-Arnold-based models $(\texttt{KAN} and \texttt{TKAN})$ for daily forecasting of temperature, precipitation, and pressure in two tropical cities: Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) and Kigali (Rwanda). We further introduce two customized variants of $ \texttt{TKAN}$ that replace its original $\texttt{SiLU}$ activation function with $ \texttt{GeLU}$ and \texttt{MiSH}, respectively. Using station-level meteorological data spanning from 2010 to 2024, we evaluate all the models on standard regression metrics. $\texttt{KAN}$ achieves temperature prediction ($R^2=0.9986$ in Abidjan, $0.9998$ in Kigali, $\texttt{MSE} < 0.0014~^\circ C ^2$), while $\texttt{TKAN}$ variants minimize absolute errors for precipitation forecasting in low-rainfall regimes. The customized $\texttt{TKAN}$ models demonstrate improvements over the standard $\texttt{TKAN}$ across both datasets. Classical \texttt{RNNs} remain highly competitive for atmospheric pressure ($R^2 \approx 0.83{-}0.86$), outperforming $\texttt{KAN}$-based models in this task. These results highlight the potential of spline-based neural architectures for efficient and data-efficient forecasting.
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