CrossLinear通过轻量级交叉相关嵌入,精准建模时序变量间依赖关系。
CrossLinear: Plug-and-Play Cross-Correlation Embedding for Time Series Forecasting with Exogenous Variables
- 引入可插拔的交叉相关嵌入模块,区分变量间直接与不变依赖
- 在12个真实数据集上实现短/长期预测性能领先,优于基线模型
- 模块通用性强,适配多种时序预测任务,计算开销极低
带外生变量的时间序列预测是重要研究方向,但传统模型难以区分内生与外生变量间的依赖关系,易导致效率低下和过拟合。本文提出CrossLinear,一种基于线性结构的新型预测模型,核心是可插拔的交叉相关嵌入模块。该模块以极低计算成本捕捉变量间的时间不变性和直接依赖关系,忽略时间变化或间接依赖,有效降低过拟合风险,并提升建模稳定性。同时,模型采用分块处理与全局线性头设计,兼顾短期与长期时序依赖,增强预测精度。在12个真实世界数据集上的实验表明,CrossLinear在短/长期预测任务中均显著优于现有方法。消融实验证明了交叉相关嵌入模块的有效性。此外,该模块具备良好泛化能力,可作为通用插件应用于不同领域。代码已开源:https://github.com/mumiao2000/CrossLinear。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Time series forecasting with exogenous variables is a critical emerging paradigm that presents unique challenges in modeling dependencies between variables. Traditional models often struggle to differentiate between endogenous and exogenous variables, leading to inefficiencies and overfitting. In this paper, we introduce CrossLinear, a novel Linear-based forecasting model that addresses these challenges by incorporating a plug-and-play cross-correlation embedding module. This lightweight module captures the dependencies between variables with minimal computational cost and seamlessly integrates into existing neural networks. Specifically, it captures time-invariant and direct variable dependencies while disregarding time-varying or indirect dependencies, thereby mitigating the risk of overfitting in dependency modeling and contributing to consistent performance improvements. Furthermore, CrossLinear employs patch-wise processing and a global linear head to effectively capture both short-term and long-term temporal dependencies, further improving its forecasting precision. Extensive experiments on 12 real-world datasets demonstrate that CrossLinear achieves superior performance in both short-term and long-term forecasting tasks. The ablation study underscores the effectiveness of the cross-correlation embedding module. Additionally, the generalizability of this module makes it a valuable plug-in for various forecasting tasks across different domains. Codes are available at https://github.com/mumiao2000/CrossLinear.
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