用密度估计改进置信预测集,更准更紧凑。
JAPAN: Joint Adaptive Prediction Areas with Normalising-Flows
- 基于流模型估计预测密度,替代传统残差得分
- 在多变量回归与预测任务中实现更紧致的预测区域
- 适合需要精准不确定性量化的研究者
置信预测为不确定性量化提供模型无关框架,并具备有限样本有效性保证,是构建可靠预测集的重要工具。然而,现有方法普遍依赖基于残差的符合度评分,施加几何约束,在分布为多峰时表现不佳,常产生以均值为中心的过度保守预测区域,难以捕捉复杂预测分布的真实形态。本文提出JAPAN(联合自适应预测区域与归一化流),采用基于密度的符合度评分。通过流模型估计(预测)密度,并基于估计密度得分设定阈值构建预测区域,可生成紧凑、可能不连通且上下文自适应的区域,同时保持有限样本覆盖保证。我们从理论上论证了JAPAN的效率,并在多变量回归和预测任务中实证验证其表现,结果表明相比基线方法具有更好的校准性和更紧致的预测区域。我们还提出了若干扩展以增强框架灵活性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Conformal prediction provides a model-agnostic framework for uncertainty quantification with finite-sample validity guarantees, making it an attractive tool for constructing reliable prediction sets. However, existing approaches commonly rely on residual-based conformity scores, which impose geometric constraints and struggle when the underlying distribution is multimodal. In particular, they tend to produce overly conservative prediction areas centred around the mean, often failing to capture the true shape of complex predictive distributions. In this work, we introduce JAPAN (Joint Adaptive Prediction Areas with Normalising-Flows), a conformal prediction framework that uses density-based conformity scores. By leveraging flow-based models, JAPAN estimates the (predictive) density and constructs prediction areas by thresholding on the estimated density scores, enabling compact, potentially disjoint, and context-adaptive regions that retain finite-sample coverage guarantees. We theoretically motivate the efficiency of JAPAN and empirically validate it across multivariate regression and forecasting tasks, demonstrating good calibration and tighter prediction areas compared to existing baselines. We also provide several \emph{extensions} adding flexibility to our proposed framework.
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