用深度学习提升加那利海流区海洋预报精度,比传统方法快且准。
Deep Learning Weather Models for Subregional Ocean Forecasting: A Case Study on the Canary Current Upwelling System
- 将气象图神经网络模型改造用于局部海域预测
- 在复杂区域误差降低76%,5天预报优于传统模型26.5%
- 适合需要快速精准海洋预报的科研与航运用户
海洋预报对环境保护和经济活动有重要影响。传统方法依赖全球环流模型,计算成本高、响应慢。深度学习虽能提供更快更准的预测,但多基于全局数值模拟数据,难以反映真实情况。本文将原本用于全球气象预报的图神经网络适配至子区域海洋预测,聚焦加那利海流上升流系统。模型使用卫星数据训练,与先进物理海洋模型对比评估性能。结果表明,该模型在精度上超越传统方法,尤其在喀尔布吉尔、卡波博哈多、卡波布莱昂等复杂动力区域表现突出:相比ConvLSTM,RMSE误差降低最高达26.5%;相比GLORYS再分析数据,5天预报误差减少高达76%。这验证了将气象类数据驱动模型迁移至子区域海洋预测的可行性,显著提升了复杂区域的空间变异性捕捉能力与中短期预报准确性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Oceanographic forecasting impacts various sectors of society by supporting environmental conservation and economic activities. Based on global circulation models, traditional forecasting methods are computationally expensive and slow, limiting their ability to provide rapid forecasts. Recent advances in deep learning offer faster and more accurate predictions, although these data-driven models are often trained with global data from numerical simulations, which may not reflect reality. The emergence of such models presents great potential for improving ocean prediction at a subregional domain. However, their ability to predict fine-scale ocean processes, like mesoscale structures, remains largely unknown. This work aims to adapt a graph neural network initially developed for global weather forecasting to improve subregional ocean prediction, specifically focusing on the Canary Current upwelling system. The model is trained with satellite data and compared to state-of-the-art physical ocean models to assess its performance in capturing ocean dynamics. Our results show that the deep learning model surpasses traditional methods in precision despite some challenges in upwelling areas. It demonstrated superior performance in reducing RMSE errors compared to ConvLSTM and the GLORYS reanalysis, particularly in regions with complex oceanic dynamics such as Cape Ghir, Cape Bojador, and Cape Blanc. The model achieved improvements of up to 26.5% relative to ConvLSTM and error reductions of up to 76% in 5-day forecasts compared to the GLORYS reanalysis at these critical locations, highlighting its enhanced capability to capture spatial variability and improve predictive accuracy in complex areas. These findings suggest the viability of adapting meteorological data-driven models for improving subregional medium-term ocean forecasting.
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