arXiv:2505.24511cs.LGcs.AI2025-05被引 14

让大模型慢思考,用推理预测时间序列走势。

Can Slow-thinking LLMs Reason Over Time? Empirical Studies in Time Series Forecasting

  • 把时间序列预测转为分步推理任务,用提示词引导大模型思考动态变化。
  • 零样本下能捕捉趋势和上下文突变,但精度仍不如专门模型。
  • 适合对可解释性有要求的预测场景,或想探索新范式的研究者。

时间序列预测(TSF)是广泛研究的基础任务,传统方法多采用快速思维模式,侧重模式提取与直接映射,忽视对时间动态和上下文依赖的显式推理。近期的慢思考大模型(如ChatGPT-o1、DeepSeek-R1)在多步推理上表现优异,提示我们可将TSF重构为结构化推理任务。本文提出TimeReasoner,一项系统性的实证研究,将TSF视为条件推理问题,设计多种提示策略以激发预训练慢思考LLM的推理能力,并在多个主流TSF基准上评估其表现。结果表明,慢思考LLM具备非平凡的零样本预测能力,尤其擅长捕捉高层趋势与上下文突变。尽管初步,本研究揭示了大模型在时间域中的推理行为,凸显其潜力与局限。我们希望推动基于推理的时间序列预测新范式,迈向更可解释、更通用的框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Time series forecasting (TSF) is a fundamental and widely studied task, spanning methods from classical statistical approaches to modern deep learning and multimodal language modeling. Despite their effectiveness, these methods often follow a fast thinking paradigm emphasizing pattern extraction and direct value mapping, while overlooking explicit reasoning over temporal dynamics and contextual dependencies. Meanwhile, emerging slow-thinking LLMs (e.g., ChatGPT-o1, DeepSeek-R1) have demonstrated impressive multi-step reasoning capabilities across diverse domains, suggesting a new opportunity for reframing TSF as a structured reasoning task. This motivates a key question: can slow-thinking LLMs effectively reason over temporal patterns to support time series forecasting, even in zero-shot manner? To investigate this, in this paper, we propose TimeReasoner, an extensive empirical study that formulates TSF as a conditional reasoning task. We design a series of prompting strategies to elicit inference-time reasoning from pretrained slow-thinking LLMs and evaluate their performance across diverse TSF benchmarks. Our findings reveal that slow-thinking LLMs exhibit non-trivial zero-shot forecasting capabilities, especially in capturing high-level trends and contextual shifts. While preliminary, our study surfaces important insights into the reasoning behaviors of LLMs in temporal domains highlighting both their potential and limitations. We hope this work catalyzes further research into reasoning-based forecasting paradigms and paves the way toward more interpretable and generalizable TSF frameworks.

时间序列大模型推理零样本

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