arXiv:2506.00765cs.AI2025-06被引 1

构建了覆盖6000多个邮编的美国房价多模态时序数据集,支持长期预测与可解释性分析。

HouseTS: A Large-Scale, Multimodal Spatiotemporal U.S. Housing Dataset and Benchmark

  • 整合月度房价、POI动态与人口普查数据,统一时间戳对齐,含年度航拍影像
  • 涵盖2012至2023年超6000个邮编,覆盖30个大都会区,支持长周期预测任务
  • 提供基于LLM的图像变化文本标注,助力模型可解释性研究,适合城市规划与金融建模

准确的长期房价预测需要能捕捉时间动态和随时间变化的本地上下文的基准数据集。然而,现有公开资源仍零散:许多数据集空间覆盖有限、时间跨度短或多模态对齐不足;现代深度预测模型与时间序列基础模型在住房数据上的鲁棒性尚未充分评估;且航拍影像极少以时序感知且可解释的方式大规模使用。为弥合这些差距,我们提出HouseTS(House Time Series),一个面向邮编级住房市场分析的多模态时空数据集,覆盖2012年3月至2023年12月期间美国30个主要都会区超过6000个邮编的月度信号。HouseTS统一对齐月度住房市场指标、月度兴趣点(POI)动态及基于人口普查的社会经济变量,并包含带时间戳的年度航拍影像。基于HouseTS,我们定义了标准的长期预测任务,涵盖单变量与多变量预测,并在零样本与微调模式下对16类模型家族(统计方法、经典机器学习、深度神经网络、时间序列基础模型)进行了基准测试。此外,我们通过视觉-语言管道结合大语言模型判别与人工验证,从多年航拍图像序列中生成图像衍生的文本变化注释,支持可扩展的可解释性分析。HouseTS已在Kaggle发布,代码与文档见GitHub。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate long-horizon house-price forecasting requires benchmarks that capture temporal dynamics together with time-varying local context. However, existing public resources remain fragmented: many datasets have limited spatial coverage, temporal depth, or multimodal alignment; the robustness of modern deep forecasters and time-series foundation models on housing data is not well characterized; and aerial imagery is rarely leveraged in a time-aware and interpretable manner at scale. To bridge these gaps, we present HouseTS (House Time Series), a multimodal spatiotemporal dataset for ZIP-code-level housing-market analysis, covering monthly signals from March 2012 to December 2023 across over 6,000 ZIP codes in 30 major U.S. metropolitan areas. HouseTS aligns monthly housing-market indicators, monthly POI dynamics, and annual census-based socioeconomic variables under a unified schema, and includes time-stamped annual aerial imagery. Building on HouseTS, we define standardized long-horizon forecasting tasks for univariate and multivariate prediction and benchmark 16 model families spanning statistical methods, classical machine learning, deep neural networks, and time-series foundation models in both zero-shot and fine-tuned modes. We also provide image-derived textual change annotations from multi-year aerial image sequences via a vision--language pipeline with LLM-as-judge and human verification to support scalable interpretability analyses. HouseTS is available on Kaggle, with code and documentation on GitHub.

多模态房价预测时空数据可解释性

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