arXiv:2506.01114cs.LGcs.AI2025-06ACL被引 16

实测大模型不确定性估计在真实场景下的表现,发现阈值敏感、抗攻击弱。

Reconsidering LLM Uncertainty Estimation Methods in the Wild

  • 测试四种实际部署挑战:阈值敏感性、对抗提示、长文本生成、多评分融合。
  • 多数方法在校准数据分布变化时对阈值极度敏感,且易被对抗提示欺骗。
  • 集成多个不确定性评分可显著提效,适合实际系统优化使用。

大语言模型的不确定性估计(UE)近年成为检测幻觉的重要工具。尽管已有众多UE方法提出,但多数研究仅在孤立的短文本问答场景中,使用无阈值指标(如AUROC、PRR)评估。然而,实际部署面临多重挑战。本文系统考察了四个关键方面:(1)决策阈值选择的敏感性,(2)对查询变换(如拼写错误、对抗提示、历史对话)的鲁棒性,(3)在长文本生成中的适用性,(4)单个查询对应多个不确定性评分的处理策略。在19种UE方法上的评估显示,当校准数据分布发生偏移时,多数方法对阈值高度敏感;虽对历史对话和拼写错误有一定鲁棒性,但极易受对抗提示影响。现有方法可通过不同策略应用于长文本生成,但仍存改进空间。最后,测试时集成多个不确定性评分可带来显著性能提升,显示出其作为实用优化策略的潜力。代码已公开:https://github.com/duygunuryldz/uncertainty_in_the_wild。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large Language Model (LLM) Uncertainty Estimation (UE) methods have become a crucial tool for detecting hallucinations in recent years. While numerous UE methods have been proposed, most existing studies evaluate them in isolated short-form QA settings using threshold-independent metrics such as AUROC or PRR. However, real-world deployment of UE methods introduces several challenges. In this work, we systematically examine four key aspects of deploying UE methods in practical settings. Specifically, we assess (1) the sensitivity of UE methods to decision threshold selection, (2) their robustness to query transformations such as typos, adversarial prompts, and prior chat history, (3) their applicability to long-form generation, and (4) strategies for handling multiple UE scores for a single query. Our evaluations on 19 UE methods reveal that most of them are highly sensitive to threshold selection when there is a distribution shift in the calibration dataset. While these methods generally exhibit robustness against previous chat history and typos, they are significantly vulnerable to adversarial prompts. Additionally, while existing UE methods can be adapted for long-form generation through various strategies, there remains considerable room for improvement. Lastly, ensembling multiple UE scores at test time provides a notable performance boost, which highlights its potential as a practical improvement strategy. Code is available at: https://github.com/duygunuryldz/uncertainty_in_the_wild.

不确定性估计大模型鲁棒性对抗攻击

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