建模交叉口道路风险，评估自动驾驶车辆在多种工况下的安全水平
Stochastic Modeling of Road Hazards on Intersections and their Effect on Safety of Autonomous Vehicles
- 构建概率模型描述交叉口道路隐患及其对感知/监控系统失效的影响
- 量化单一工况下致命事故的发生概率，支持安全评估
- 扩展模型以涵盖ODD内多类运行条件，提升评估实用性
自动驾驶汽车（AV）预计在未来几年内将广泛上路。要实现最终突破，不仅需功能进步，还需提供令人满意的安全保障。其中关键问题在于如何评估和量化自动驾驶汽车的整体安全性。此类评估需同时考虑自动驾驶功能的不完善性及其与环境的交互影响。此前我们提出一种基于模型的安全评估方法，利用概率模型描述道路隐患，并分析感知系统、安全监控等组件缺陷对安全的影响，可量化单一工况下致命事故的发生概率。本文进一步拓展该方法，展示模型如何显式处理特定运行设计域（ODD）内的多种运行条件。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Autonomous vehicles (AV) look set to become common on our roads within the next few years. However, to achieve the final breakthrough, not only functional progress is required, but also satisfactory safety assurance must be provided. Among those, a question demanding special attention is the need to assess and quantify the overall safety of an AV. Such an assessment must consider on the one hand the imperfections of the AV functionality and on the other hand its interaction with the environment. In a previous paper we presented a model-based approach to AV safety assessment in which we use a probabilistic model to describe road hazards together with the impact on AV safety of imperfect behavior of AV functions, such as safety monitors and perception systems. With this model, we are able to quantify the likelihood of the occurrence of a fatal accident, for a single operating condition. In this paper, we extend the approach and show how the model can deal explicitly with a set of different operating conditions defined in a given ODD.
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