用卫星和兴趣点数据,精准预测城市碳排放
OpenCarbon: A Contrastive Learning-based Cross-Modality Neural Approach for High-Resolution Carbon Emission Prediction Using Open Data
- 融合遥感与兴趣点数据,捕捉功能与排放关系
- 在多个城市上提升26.6%的预测准确率
- 适合做城市碳管理与减排规划的研究者
精确估算高分辨率碳排放对有效治理和减缓规划至关重要。传统方法因数据采集成本高而受限,开放数据与先进学习技术提供了新路径。一旦基于开放数据训练出预测模型,即可快速推断新区域的排放情况。本文提出OpenCarbon,融合卫星图像(宏观静态)与兴趣点(POI)数据(细粒度动态),解决两大挑战:功能间的隐含耦合效应,以及空间邻近带来的集聚效应。模型设计两个核心模块:跨模态信息提取与融合模块,挖掘两源数据互补的功能信息并建模交互;邻域感知聚合模块,捕捉空间连续性关联。大量实验表明,模型在R2指标上提升26.6%,泛化测试与案例分析验证其能有效揭示城市功能与碳排放的内在联系,具备支撑高效碳治理与精准减缓规划的潜力。代码与数据已公开:https://github.com/JinweiZzz/OpenCarbon。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurately estimating high-resolution carbon emissions is crucial for effective emission governance and mitigation planning. While conventional methods for precise carbon accounting are hindered by substantial data collection efforts, the rise of open data and advanced learning techniques offers a promising solution. Once an open data-based prediction model is developed and trained, it can easily infer emissions for new areas based on available open data. To address this, we incorporate two modalities of open data, satellite images and point-of-interest (POI) data, to predict high-resolution urban carbon emissions, with satellite images providing macroscopic and static and POI data offering fine-grained and relatively dynamic functionality information. However, estimating high-resolution carbon emissions presents two significant challenges: the intertwined and implicit effects of various functionalities on carbon emissions, and the complex spatial contiguity correlations that give rise to the agglomeration effect. Our model, OpenCarbon, features two major designs that target the challenges: a cross-modality information extraction and fusion module to extract complementary functionality information from two modules and model their interactions, and a neighborhood-informed aggregation module to capture the spatial contiguity correlations. Extensive experiments demonstrate our model's superiority, with a significant performance gain of 26.6\% on R2. Further generalizability tests and case studies also show OpenCarbon's capacity to capture the intrinsic relation between urban functionalities and carbon emissions, validating its potential to empower efficient carbon governance and targeted carbon mitigation planning. Codes and data are available: https://github.com/JinweiZzz/OpenCarbon.
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