动态LSTM模型提升业务流程预测准确率与适应性
Comprehensive Attribute Encoding and Dynamic LSTM HyperModels for Outcome Oriented Predictive Business Process Monitoring
- 两级层次编码+字符分解,动态建模事件与序列属性
- 平衡数据上准确率达100%,不平衡数据F1超86%
- 适合复杂多变业务场景,支持可解释的流程智能
预测性业务流程监控(PBPM)旨在预测正在进行的业务流程的未来结果。现有方法难以应对并发事件、类别不平衡和多层级属性等现实挑战。尽管已有研究尝试静态编码和固定LSTM结构,但缺乏自适应表示能力且泛化性差。为此,本文提出一套动态LSTM HyperModels,融合两级层次编码(事件与序列属性)、事件标签的字符级分解,以及持续时间与属性相关性的新型伪嵌入技术。针对并发事件,引入多维嵌入与时间差标志增强的专用LSTM变体。在四个公开及真实世界数据集上的实验表明,该方法在平衡数据上准确率达100%,在不平衡数据上F1分数超过86%。本方法通过模块化与可解释性设计,显著提升复杂环境下的部署能力,并为时序结果预测、数据异构性处理和可解释流程智能框架提供通用贡献。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Predictive Business Process Monitoring (PBPM) aims to forecast future outcomes of ongoing business processes. However, existing methods often lack flexibility to handle real-world challenges such as simultaneous events, class imbalance, and multi-level attributes. While prior work has explored static encoding schemes and fixed LSTM architectures, they struggle to support adaptive representations and generalize across heterogeneous datasets. To address these limitations, we propose a suite of dynamic LSTM HyperModels that integrate two-level hierarchical encoding for event and sequence attributes, character-based decomposition of event labels, and novel pseudo-embedding techniques for durations and attribute correlations. We further introduce specialized LSTM variants for simultaneous event modeling, leveraging multidimensional embeddings and time-difference flag augmentation. Experimental validation on four public and real-world datasets demonstrates up to 100% accuracy on balanced datasets and F1 scores exceeding 86\% on imbalanced ones. Our approach advances PBPM by offering modular and interpretable models better suited for deployment in complex settings. Beyond PBPM, it contributes to the broader AI community by improving temporal outcome prediction, supporting data heterogeneity, and promoting explainable process intelligence frameworks.
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