arXiv:2506.03898cs.LGstat.ML2025-06NeurIPS被引 1

基于学习理论边界构建条件分布检验方法,可定位差异输入并支持多种统计测试。

Kernel conditional tests from learning-theoretic bounds

  • 将学习方法的置信界转化为条件期望检验,结合核岭回归与数据嵌入
  • 在非迹类核和无限维输出下实现新类型置信界,支持在线采样
  • 提出可调参的自助法,适用于过程监控等实际场景

我们提出一种针对条件概率分布的假设检验框架,并用于构造条件分布函数的统计检验。这些检验能以高概率识别出函数差异显著的输入,涵盖条件矩或两样本检验。核心思想是将学习方法的置信界转化为条件期望的检验。我们在子高斯噪声下的核岭回归(KRR)中实例化该原则。通过中间数据嵌入,进一步实现更通用的检验——包括条件两样本检验——借助分布的核均值嵌入。为获得该设定下的理论保证,我们将现有针对KRR的逐点时间或时间统一置信界推广至此前无法处理的关键情形,如无限维输出和非迹类核。这些边界还避免了独立数据要求,支持在线采样。为便于实践应用,我们引入基于理论中识别出的参数化检验阈值的自助法,避免调整难以获取的参数。我们在多个例子中展示了该方法,包括过程监控和动态系统比较。总体而言,我们的成果为条件函数泛函检验建立了从理论保障到算法实现的完整基础,并推进了向量值最小二乘估计置信界的研究前沿。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We propose a framework for hypothesis testing on conditional probability distributions, which we then use to construct statistical tests of functionals of conditional distributions. These tests identify the inputs where the functionals differ with high probability, and include tests of conditional moments or two-sample tests. Our key idea is to transform confidence bounds of a learning method into a test of conditional expectations. We instantiate this principle for kernel ridge regression (KRR) with subgaussian noise. An intermediate data embedding then enables more general tests -- including conditional two-sample tests -- via kernel mean embeddings of distributions. To have guarantees in this setting, we generalize existing pointwise-in-time or time-uniform confidence bounds for KRR to previously-inaccessible yet essential cases such as infinite-dimensional outputs with non-trace-class kernels. These bounds also circumvent the need for independent data, allowing for instance online sampling. To make our tests readily applicable in practice, we introduce bootstrapping schemes leveraging the parametric form of testing thresholds identified in theory to avoid tuning inaccessible parameters. We illustrate the tests on examples, including one in process monitoring and comparison of dynamical systems. Overall, our results establish a comprehensive foundation for conditional testing on functionals, from theoretical guarantees to an algorithmic implementation, and advance the state of the art on confidence bounds for vector-valued least squares estimation.

假设检验条件分布核方法置信界

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