arXiv:2506.04254cs.LGcs.AI2025-06被引 4

针对法国各地区差异,提出部门感知的林火风险预测方法

Localized Forest Fire Risk Prediction: A Department-Aware Approach for Operational Decision Support

  • 按行政区划建模,考虑地形气候等本地因素
  • 首个基于先进AI的全国尺度林火预测基准
  • 适合消防决策者用于区域化风险预警

林火预测旨在特定时间和区域内估计火灾发生或风险水平。随着气候变化加剧火灾频率与强度,精准预测已成为人工智能领域最紧迫的挑战之一。传统研究将火灾点火视为二分类任务,但该方式过度简化问题,尤其不利于一线救援人员。以法国为例,消防力量按省份组织,各省份地形、气候及历史火情各异。因此,风险建模需反映本地特征,而非假设全国风险均一。本文提出一种面向部门情境的林火风险评估新方法,提供更具操作性的区域化预测。我们构建了首个基于先进AI模型的法国本土尺度预测基准,使用一个相对未被探索的数据集。最后,总结了未来重要研究方向。补充材料可在GitHub获取。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Forest fire prediction involves estimating the likelihood of fire ignition or related risk levels in a specific area over a defined time period. With climate change intensifying fire behavior and frequency, accurate prediction has become one of the most pressing challenges in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Traditionally, fire ignition is approached as a binary classification task in the literature. However, this formulation oversimplifies the problem, especially from the perspective of end-users such as firefighters. In general, as is the case in France, firefighting units are organized by department, each with its terrain, climate conditions, and historical experience with fire events. Consequently, fire risk should be modeled in a way that is sensitive to local conditions and does not assume uniform risk across all regions. This paper proposes a new approach that tailors fire risk assessment to departmental contexts, offering more actionable and region-specific predictions for operational use. With this, we present the first national-scale AI benchmark for metropolitan France using state-of-the-art AI models on a relatively unexplored dataset. Finally, we offer a summary of important future works that should be taken into account. Supplementary materials are available on GitHub.

林火预测区域建模决策支持

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