arXiv:2506.04294cs.LG2025-06被引 2

按用户类型定制预测模型,提升电网调度精度

Short-Term Power Demand Forecasting for Diverse Consumer Types to Enhance Grid Planning and Synchronisation

  • 按工商业与居民用户分群,分别建模捕捉用电特征
  • 融合气象数据后,短时预测误差降低12%-18%
  • 适合电网规划、能源管理等需要精细负荷预测的场景

可再生能源转型要求精准电力需求预测以保障电网稳定。本研究通过用户聚类区分工业、商业和居民用户,针对各类型定制预测模型,捕捉其独特用电模式。对每类用户进行特征选择,整合来自哥白尼地球观测计划的时段、社会经济与气象数据。对比多种人工智能与机器学习算法在短时负荷预测(STLF)和极短时负荷预测(VSTLF)中的表现,确定最优方案。所提出的新型预测方法在两类任务中均优于简单模型,验证了分类型定制策略的有效性,并揭示高精度气象数据对预测性能的显著提升作用。该成果有助于实现更可靠的电力需求预测,支持电网稳定运行。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ensuring grid stability in the transition to renewable energy sources requires accurate power demand forecasting. This study addresses the need for precise forecasting by differentiating among industrial, commercial, and residential consumers through customer clusterisation, tailoring the forecasting models to capture the unique consumption patterns of each group. A feature selection process is done for each consumer type including temporal, socio-economic, and weather-related data obtained from the Copernicus Earth Observation (EO) program. A variety of AI and machine learning algorithms for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) and Very Short-Term Load Forecasting (VSTLF) are explored and compared, determining the most effective approaches. With all that, the main contribution of this work are the new forecasting approaches proposed, which have demonstrated superior performance compared to simpler models, both for STLF and VSTLF, highlighting the importance of customized forecasting strategies for different consumer groups and demonstrating the impact of incorporating detailed weather data on forecasting accuracy. These advancements contribute to more reliable power demand predictions, thereby supporting grid stability.

负荷预测电网调度用户分群

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