用神经网络建模时间序列中的突发跳跃与非平稳波动,提升预测稳定性。
Neural MJD: Neural Non-Stationary Merton Jump Diffusion for Time Series Prediction
- 将预测建模为带时变扩散和跳跃的随机微分方程,显式捕捉非平稳性。
- 在小时间区间内限制跳跃数,理论证明近似误差可控。
- 提出带重启的欧拉-马鲁亚玛求解器,降低估计误差和方差。
尽管深度学习在时间序列预测中表现优异,但其黑箱特性及无法显式建模底层随机过程,常导致在存在突变的非平稳数据上泛化能力不足。本文提出 Neural MJD,一种基于神经网络的非平稳 Merton 跳跃扩散模型。该模型将预测视为随机微分方程(SDE)模拟问题,结合时变的 Itô 扩散以捕捉非平稳随机动态,并引入时变复合泊松过程来建模突发跳跃。为实现可训练性,提出一种跳跃数截断机制,在短时间区间内限制跳跃次数,并提供该近似的理论误差界。此外,设计一种带重启的欧拉-马鲁亚玛求解器,在估计期望状态时具有可证明更低的误差界,且方差更小。在合成数据和真实世界数据集上的实验表明,Neural MJD 均持续优于现有顶尖深度学习与统计学习方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
While deep learning methods have achieved strong performance in time series prediction, their black-box nature and inability to explicitly model underlying stochastic processes often limit their generalization to non-stationary data, especially in the presence of abrupt changes. In this work, we introduce Neural MJD, a neural network based non-stationary Merton jump diffusion (MJD) model. Our model explicitly formulates forecasting as a stochastic differential equation (SDE) simulation problem, combining a time-inhomogeneous Itô diffusion to capture non-stationary stochastic dynamics with a time-inhomogeneous compound Poisson process to model abrupt jumps. To enable tractable learning, we introduce a likelihood truncation mechanism that caps the number of jumps within small time intervals and provide a theoretical error bound for this approximation. Additionally, we propose an Euler-Maruyama with restart solver, which achieves a provably lower error bound in estimating expected states and reduced variance compared to the standard solver. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that Neural MJD consistently outperforms state-of-the-art deep learning and statistical learning methods.
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