用机器学习捕捉个人视角,预测创新成败。
Subjective Perspectives within Learned Representations Predict High-Impact Innovation
- 基于语言模型构建概念空间,量化个人主观视角差异。
- 视角多样性越强,创新成功率越高;背景多样性反而抑制创新。
- 适合团队组建与科研政策制定者参考。
现有创新研究强调社会结构对创新能力的影响。新兴的机器学习方法使我们能够将创新者的个人视角及人际创新机会建模为先前经验的函数。本文提出并量化了主观视角及其交互作用,基于动态学习的语言表征所构建的概念几何空间中创新者的位置。利用涵盖数百万科学家、发明家、编剧、企业家和维基贡献者在各自创作领域中的数据,我们发现:测量到的主观视角可预测个体和群体未来将关注并成功整合哪些创意。在所有考察案例与时间段中,当视角多样性(合作者对创作的视角差异)与背景多样性(经历差异)分解后,前者始终能预示创造性成就,而后者则相反。我们分析了一个自然实验,并模拟了具有不同视角与背景多样性的AI代理之间的协作,结果支持观察发现。我们探讨了这些现象背后的机制,揭示出成功合作者如何利用共同语言,将先前工作轨迹中获得的多样化经验编织在一起,使观点相互汇聚与激发以实现创新。这些发现对团队组建与研究政策具有重要意义。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Existing studies of innovation emphasize the power of social structures to shape innovation capacity. Emerging machine learning approaches, however, enable us to model innovators' personal perspectives and interpersonal innovation opportunities as a function of their prior experience. We theorize and then quantify subjective perspectives and their interaction based on innovator positions within the geometric space of concepts inscribed by dynamic machine-learned language representations. Using data on millions of scientists, inventors, screenplay writers, entrepreneurs, and Wikipedia contributors across their respective creative domains, here we show that measured subjective perspectives predict which ideas individuals and groups will creatively attend to and successfully combine in the future. Across all cases and time periods we examine, when perspective diversity is decomposed as the difference between collaborators' perspectives on their creation, and background diversity as the difference between their experiences, the former consistently anticipates creative achievement while the latter portends its opposite. We analyze a natural experiment and simulate creative collaborations between AI agents designed with various perspective and background diversity, which support our observational findings. We explore mechanisms underlying these findings and identify how successful collaborators leverage common language to weave together diverse experiences obtained through trajectories of prior work. These perspectives converge and provoke one another to innovate. We examine the significance of these findings for team formation and research policy.
Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。