提出时间感知的解释方法TIMING,更好识别时序数据中正负影响的关键点。
TIMING: Temporality-Aware Integrated Gradients for Time Series Explanation
- 基于积分梯度改进,引入时间一致性路径生成机制
- 在真实与合成数据上显著优于现有时序解释方法
- 适合需要精准定位关键时间点的工业时序分析场景
现有时序可解释AI方法多仅评估特征贡献的绝对大小,忽略其对预测的方向性影响,导致关键点识别不充分。我们分析发现,传统积分梯度(IG)能有效捕捉对预测有正负影响的关键点,但现有评估指标因抵消相反贡献而无法准确衡量此能力。为此,我们提出累积预测差异(CPD)与累积预测保持率(CPP)两个新指标,系统评估方法是否准确识别正负影响点。实验表明,传统IG在此新指标下表现优于近期方法。然而,直接将IG应用于时序数据会因忽略时间关系、引入分布外样本而效果不佳。为此,我们提出TIMING,通过引入时间感知路径生成,在保留理论性质的同时提升解释精度。在合成与真实世界时序基准上的大量实验显示,TIMING显著优于现有时序可解释性基线方法。代码已公开于https://github.com/drumpt/TIMING。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Recent explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods for time series primarily estimate point-wise attribution magnitudes, while overlooking the directional impact on predictions, leading to suboptimal identification of significant points. Our analysis shows that conventional Integrated Gradients (IG) effectively capture critical points with both positive and negative impacts on predictions. However, current evaluation metrics fail to assess this capability, as they inadvertently cancel out opposing feature contributions. To address this limitation, we propose novel evaluation metrics-Cumulative Prediction Difference (CPD) and Cumulative Prediction Preservation (CPP)-to systematically assess whether attribution methods accurately identify significant positive and negative points in time series XAI. Under these metrics, conventional IG outperforms recent counterparts. However, directly applying IG to time series data may lead to suboptimal outcomes, as generated paths ignore temporal relationships and introduce out-of-distribution samples. To overcome these challenges, we introduce TIMING, which enhances IG by incorporating temporal awareness while maintaining its theoretical properties. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world time series benchmarks demonstrate that TIMING outperforms existing time series XAI baselines. Our code is available at https://github.com/drumpt/TIMING.
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