梳理近十年计算研究中情景法的应用，揭示其未来技术预测的实践与局限。
Scenarios in Computing Research: A Systematic Review of the Use of Scenario Methods for Exploring the Future of Computing Technologies in Society
- 通过系统综述59篇论文，分析情景法在计算研究中的使用动机与方法。
- 发现当前情景构建多聚焦技术发展路径，但对社会包容性关注不足。
- 强调参与式设计对提升研究公平性的重要性，适合政策与人机交互研究者参考。
情景构建是预测新兴技术未来发展的成熟方法，其核心目标是通过叙事描绘技术演进与社会技术采纳的未来轨迹。该过程有助于早期识别风险与收益，并制定通向理想未来的策略。近年来，计算机科学领域已采用此方法，应用于人工智能等技术。鉴于计算技术对现代社会的重要影响，有必要探究情景法在该领域的应用现状，以及尚未充分覆盖但具有潜力的传统用途。为此，本文对过去十年（共59篇）计算机科学文献中的情景构建方法进行了系统性回顾。研究围绕两个核心问题展开：一是揭示情景法在计算文献中的具体应用方式，尤其关注其使用动因；二是深入考察现有文献中情景构建的参与性特征，探讨其如何促进研究的包容性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Scenario building is an established method to anticipate the future of emerging technologies. Its primary goal is to use narratives to map future trajectories of technology development and sociotechnical adoption. Following this process, risks and benefits can be identified early on, and strategies can be developed that strive for desirable futures. In recent years, computer science has adopted this method and applied it to various technologies, including Artificial Intelligence (AI). Because computing technologies play such an important role in shaping modern societies, it is worth exploring how scenarios are being used as an anticipatory tool in the field -- and what possible traditional uses of scenarios are not yet covered but have the potential to enrich the field. We address this gap by conducting a systematic literature review on the use of scenario building methods in computer science over the last decade (n = 59). We guide the review along two main questions. First, we aim to uncover how scenarios are used in computing literature, focusing especially on the rationale for why scenarios are used. Second, in following the potential of scenario building to enhance inclusivity in research, we dive deeper into the participatory element of the existing scenario building literature in computer science.
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