arXiv:2506.05810cs.AIcs.RO2025-06

用轨迹熵衡量驾驶复杂度,提升多智能体博弈预测精度与效率

Trajectory Entropy: Modeling Game State Stability from Multimodality Trajectory Prediction

  • 基于多模态轨迹预测结果计算轨迹熵,量化驾驶不确定性
  • 在Waymo和nuPlan上预测精度提升19.89%,规划精度提升16.48%
  • 适合自动驾驶中复杂交互场景的实时决策系统

真实道路中智能体间的复杂交互给自动驾驶带来挑战。现有层次博弈(level-k game)框架虽能解耦智能体策略,但忽略了不同智能体间驾驶复杂度差异及博弈层级间状态动态变化,导致冗余计算。本文提出轨迹熵(Trajectory Entropy)作为衡量智能体博弈状态的新指标,其核心思想是将智能体策略不确定性与驾驶复杂度关联。通过从多模态轨迹预测结果中提取不确定性统计信号,并利用信噪比量化博弈状态。基于该熵值,引入简单门控机制优化原level-k框架,在Waymo和nuPlan数据集上完成轨迹预测、开环与闭环规划任务评估。结果表明,本方法在预测任务中精度最高提升19.89%,规划任务中提升16.48%,显著提升性能并降低计算开销。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Complex interactions among agents present a significant challenge for autonomous driving in real-world scenarios. Recently, a promising approach has emerged, which formulates the interactions of agents as a level-k game framework. It effectively decouples agent policies by hierarchical game levels. However, this framework ignores both the varying driving complexities among agents and the dynamic changes in agent states across game levels, instead treating them uniformly. Consequently, redundant and error-prone computations are introduced into this framework. To tackle the issue, this paper proposes a metric, termed as Trajectory Entropy, to reveal the game status of agents within the level-k game framework. The key insight stems from recognizing the inherit relationship between agent policy uncertainty and the associated driving complexity. Specifically, Trajectory Entropy extracts statistical signals representing uncertainty from the multimodality trajectory prediction results of agents in the game. Then, the signal-to-noise ratio of this signal is utilized to quantify the game status of agents. Based on the proposed Trajectory Entropy, we refine the current level-k game framework through a simple gating mechanism, significantly improving overall accuracy while reducing computational costs. Our method is evaluated on the Waymo and nuPlan datasets, in terms of trajectory prediction, open-loop and closed-loop planning tasks. The results demonstrate the state-of-the-art performance of our method, with precision improved by up to 19.89% for prediction and up to 16.48% for planning.

自动驾驶博弈论轨迹预测多智能体

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