arXiv:2506.06285cs.AI2025-06

新模糊系统提升光伏预测精度,兼顾可解释性与性能。

NFISiS: New Perspectives on Fuzzy Inference Systems for Renewable Energy Forecasting

  • 基于Mamdani框架扩展新型模糊推理系统,支持灵活规则数调节。
  • 遗传与集成策略使模型在光伏数据上超越传统机器学习和深度学习。
  • 适合需要可解释性的能源预测场景,代码开源可用。

深度学习虽流行,但存在训练时间长、不可解释的问题。模糊推理系统则在准确率与透明度间取得平衡。本文针对传统Takagi-Sugeno-Kang模型的不足,将新提出的Takagi-Sugeno-Kang模型扩展为基于Mamdani的回归器。这些模型为数据驱动,用户可设定规则数量以权衡精度与可解释性。为应对大数据复杂性,研究融合包裹式与集成技术:采用遗传算法进行特征选择,生成遗传型模型;并引入随机新Mamdani回归器、随机新Takagi-Sugeno-Kang及随机森林新Takagi-Sugeno-Kang等集成模型提升鲁棒性。所提模型在光伏能量预测数据集上验证,结果表明,遗传型与集成型模糊模型(尤其是遗传型新Takagi-Sugeno-Kang与随机森林新Takagi-Sugeno-Kang)性能优越,常优于传统机器学习与深度学习模型,同时保持简洁可解释的规则结构。模型已公开于名为nfisis的库中(https://pypi.org/project/nfisis/)。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep learning models, despite their popularity, face challenges such as long training times and a lack of interpretability. In contrast, fuzzy inference systems offer a balance of accuracy and transparency. This paper addresses the limitations of traditional Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy models by extending the recently proposed New Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model to a new Mamdani-based regressor. These models are data-driven, allowing users to define the number of rules to balance accuracy and interpretability. To handle the complexity of large datasets, this research integrates wrapper and ensemble techniques. A Genetic Algorithm is used as a wrapper for feature selection, creating genetic versions of the models. Furthermore, ensemble models, including the Random New Mamdani Regressor, Random New Takagi-Sugeno-Kang, and Random Forest New Takagi-Sugeno-Kang, are introduced to improve robustness. The proposed models are validated on photovoltaic energy forecasting datasets, a critical application due to the intermittent nature of solar power. Results demonstrate that the genetic and ensemble fuzzy models, particularly the Genetic New Takagi-Sugeno-Kang and Random Forest New Takagi-Sugeno-Kang, achieve superior performance. They often outperform both traditional machine learning and deep learning models while providing a simpler and more interpretable rule-based structure. The models are available online in a library called nfisis (https://pypi.org/project/nfisis/).

模糊系统能源预测可解释性集成学习

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