用深度学习快速预测次声波传播损耗,助力核禁试条约监测实时评估。
Towards real-time assessment of infrasound event detection capability using deep learning-based transmission loss estimation
- 输入风速与温度场,用卷积与循环网络捕捉大气传播特征。
- 平均误差4分贝,支持长距离(4000公里)和高空(130公里)传播预测。
- 可处理训练外数据,适合核试验等爆炸源的实时检测能力评估。
精确建模次声波传播损耗对于评估国际监测系统性能至关重要,有助于有效设计与维护次声站以支持《全面禁止核试验条约》的履约。现有传播模拟工具虽能利用大气模型精细模拟传播损耗,但计算成本高,难以在实际监测中探索大规模参数空间。为此,近期研究采用深度学习算法实现近乎即时的传播损耗预测。然而,使用强迫大气模型导致介质表征不完整,且未将温度作为输入,使模型无法适用于远距离传播。本研究通过将风场与温度场同时作为神经网络输入(模拟至130公里高度、4000公里距离),优化网络结构。利用卷积与循环层捕捉真实大气模型中的空间与距离依赖特征,显著提升性能。模型平均误差为4分贝,优于全抛物方程模拟,并提供认知与数据相关不确定性估计。在2022年洪阿汤加-洪阿哈阿帕伊火山爆发事件上的评估表明,其能准确预测训练数据外的大气条件与频率下的传播损耗。这为国际监测系统爆炸源探测阈值的近实时评估迈出关键一步。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Accurate modeling of infrasound transmission loss is essential for evaluating the performance of the International Monitoring System, enabling the effective design and maintenance of infrasound stations to support compliance of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. State-of-the-art propagation modeling tools enable transmission loss to be finely simulated using atmospheric models. However, the computational cost prohibits the exploration of a large parameter space in operational monitoring applications. To address this, recent studies made use of a deep learning algorithm capable of making transmission loss predictions almost instantaneously. However, the use of nudged atmospheric models leads to an incomplete representation of the medium, and the absence of temperature as an input makes the algorithm incompatible with long range propagation. In this study, we address these limitations by using both wind and temperature fields as inputs to a neural network, simulated up to 130 km altitude and 4,000 km distance. We also optimize several aspects of the neural network architecture. We exploit convolutional and recurrent layers to capture spatially and range-dependent features embedded in realistic atmospheric models, improving the overall performance. The neural network reaches an average error of 4 dB compared to full parabolic equation simulations and provides epistemic and data-related uncertainty estimates. Its evaluation on the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption demonstrates its prediction capability using atmospheric conditions and frequencies not included in the training. This represents a significant step towards near real-time assessment of International Monitoring System detection thresholds of explosive sources.
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