针对罕见极端事件,提出首个合成数据生成综述。
Beyond the Norm: A Survey of Synthetic Data Generation for Rare Events
- 结合统计理论与专用训练机制生成重尾分布数据
- 构建涵盖统计、依赖、视觉等多维度评估框架
- 聚焦金融、火灾、地震等未充分研究领域
极端事件如市场崩盘、自然灾害和大流行病虽罕见但破坏性强,常引发连锁失效。准确预测与早期预警有助于减少损失并提升应对能力。尽管数据驱动方法在建模中表现强大,但需大量训练数据,而极端事件数据本身稀缺,构成根本挑战。合成数据生成已成为有效解决方案。然而,现有综述多关注一般数据及隐私保护,未针对极端事件的独特性能要求。本文首次系统梳理极端事件的合成数据生成技术,涵盖生成模型与大语言模型,特别是基于统计理论、专用训练与采样机制以捕捉重尾分布的方法。总结基准数据集,提出定制化评估框架,包含统计、依赖、视觉及任务导向指标。核心贡献在于深入分析各指标在极端性中的适用性及领域适配策略,为极端场景下的模型评估提供可操作指导。分类关键应用领域,识别行为金融、野火、地震、风灾及传染病爆发等未充分研究方向。最后,提出开放挑战,为推动合成稀有事件研究奠定结构化基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and improve preparedness. While data-driven methods offer powerful capabilities for extreme event modeling, they require abundant training data, yet extreme event data is inherently scarce, creating a fundamental challenge. Synthetic data generation has emerged as a powerful solution. However, existing surveys focus on general data with privacy preservation emphasis, rather than extreme events' unique performance requirements. This survey provides the first overview of synthetic data generation for extreme events. We systematically review generative modeling techniques and large language models, particularly those enhanced by statistical theory as well as specialized training and sampling mechanisms to capture heavy-tailed distributions. We summarize benchmark datasets and introduce a tailored evaluation framework covering statistical, dependence, visual, and task-oriented metrics. A central contribution is our in-depth analysis of each metric's applicability in extremeness and domain-specific adaptations, providing actionable guidance for model evaluation in extreme settings. We categorize key application domains and identify underexplored areas like behavioral finance, wildfires, earthquakes, windstorms, and infectious outbreaks. Finally, we outline open challenges, providing a structured foundation for advancing synthetic rare-event research.
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