arXiv:2506.06599cs.LGstat.ML2025-06ICML被引 8

让模型直接学着缩小预测集,提升不确定性估计的实用性。

Direct Prediction Set Minimization via Bilevel Conformal Classifier Training

  • 将校准过程融入模型训练,通过双层优化直接最小化预测集大小。
  • 在多个数据集上预测集大小减少20.46%,优于现有方法。
  • 适合需要精准不确定估计的高风险场景,如医疗诊断。

置信预测(Conformal Prediction, CP)是一种可提供保证的不确定性量化框架,通过包装黑盒分类器生成预测集(候选类别子集)。但标准校准方法常产生过大的预测集,限制了实际应用。本文提出将置信原则融入深度分类器训练过程,直接最小化预测集规模。通过构建双层优化问题,提出直接预测集最小化(DPSM)算法,其核心思想是在学习符合度得分分位数(下层)的基础上,最小化预测集大小(上层)。理论分析表明,DPSM 的学习误差界为 $O(1/\\/sqrt{n})$(n 为训练样本数),而基于随机近似的先前方法为 $Ω(1/s)$(s 为批量大小,通常 $s \ll \sqrt{n}$)。在多个基准数据集和深度模型上的实验显示,DPSM 显著优于最佳现有基线,预测集大小降低 20.46%,验证了理论结果。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Conformal prediction (CP) is a promising uncertainty quantification framework which works as a wrapper around a black-box classifier to construct prediction sets (i.e., subset of candidate classes) with provable guarantees. However, standard calibration methods for CP tend to produce large prediction sets which makes them less useful in practice. This paper considers the problem of integrating conformal principles into the training process of deep classifiers to directly minimize the size of prediction sets. We formulate conformal training as a bilevel optimization problem and propose the {\em Direct Prediction Set Minimization (DPSM)} algorithm to solve it. The key insight behind DPSM is to minimize a measure of the prediction set size (upper level) that is conditioned on the learned quantile of conformity scores (lower level). We analyze that DPSM has a learning bound of $O(1/\sqrt{n})$ (with $n$ training samples), while prior conformal training methods based on stochastic approximation for the quantile has a bound of $Ω(1/s)$ (with batch size $s$ and typically $s \ll \sqrt{n}$). Experiments on various benchmark datasets and deep models show that DPSM significantly outperforms the best prior conformal training baseline with $20.46\%\downarrow$ in the prediction set size and validates our theory.

置信预测不确定性量化双层优化深度学习

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