arXiv:2506.06657cs.CLcs.AI2025-06ACL被引 9

用大模型做价格预测,能给出完整概率分布。

Quantile Regression with Large Language Models for Price Prediction

  • 提出量化回归方法,让大模型输出价格分布而非单一数值。
  • 在三个数据集上,微调后的Mistral-7B表现优于传统方法。
  • 适合需要不确定性评估的价格预测场景,如电商定价。

大型语言模型(LLMs)在结构化预测任务中展现出潜力,包括回归,但现有方法多聚焦于点估计,缺乏系统性比较。本文研究使用LLMs进行概率回归,处理文本到分布的预测任务,如价格估算,该任务需结合细腻的文本理解与不确定性量化。我们提出一种新型量化回归方法,使LLMs能够生成完整的预测分布,优于传统点估计。在三个不同价格预测数据集上进行广泛实验,结果表明,经量化头微调的Mistral-7B模型在点估计和分布校准方面均显著优于传统方法,采用三项标准指标进行评估。系统对比显示,Mistral-7B始终优于编码器架构、基于嵌入的方法及少样本学习方法。实验还发现,大模型辅助标签修正可实现人类水平精度且无系统偏差。所构建的数据集已公开于https://github.com/vnik18/llm-price-quantile-reg/,以支持未来研究。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in structured prediction tasks, including regression, but existing approaches primarily focus on point estimates and lack systematic comparison across different methods. We investigate probabilistic regression using LLMs for unstructured inputs, addressing challenging text-to-distribution prediction tasks such as price estimation where both nuanced text understanding and uncertainty quantification are critical. We propose a novel quantile regression approach that enables LLMs to produce full predictive distributions, improving upon traditional point estimates. Through extensive experiments across three diverse price prediction datasets, we demonstrate that a Mistral-7B model fine-tuned with quantile heads significantly outperforms traditional approaches for both point and distributional estimations, as measured by three established metrics each for prediction accuracy and distributional calibration. Our systematic comparison of LLM approaches, model architectures, training approaches, and data scaling reveals that Mistral-7B consistently outperforms encoder architectures, embedding-based methods, and few-shot learning methods. Our experiments also reveal the effectiveness of LLM-assisted label correction in achieving human-level accuracy without systematic bias. Our curated datasets are made available at https://github.com/vnik18/llm-price-quantile-reg/ to support future research.

价格预测量化回归大模型应用

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。