arXiv:2506.07584cs.LG2025-06NeurIPS被引 24

MIRA 是专为医疗时间序列设计的统一基础模型,解决数据稀疏与不规则采样难题。

MIRA: Medical Time Series Foundation Model for Real-World Health Data

  • 采用连续时间旋转位置编码,精准建模不规则时间间隔。
  • 在跨机构数据上实现平均10%的预测误差降低。
  • 适合医疗数据隐私受限或标注稀缺场景使用。

针对医疗时间序列数据固有的不规则采样、异构采样率和频繁缺失值问题,我们提出 MIRA——一个专为医疗时间序列设计的统一基础模型。该模型基于超过4540亿个时间点的公开医疗数据预训练,引入连续时间旋转位置编码以精细建模变量时间间隔,采用频率特定的专家混合层促进时序专业化,结合基于神经ODE的连续动态外推模块,实现任意目标时间点的精准预测。在分布外和分布内场景下,相比其他零样本及微调基线,预测误差平均分别降低10%和7%。我们还构建了涵盖多个下游临床任务的综合性基准,为未来研究奠定基础。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

A unified foundation model for medical time series -- pretrained on open access and ethics board-approved medical corpora -- offers the potential to reduce annotation burdens, minimize model customization, and enable robust transfer across clinical institutions, modalities, and tasks, particularly in data-scarce or privacy-constrained environments. However, existing generalist time series foundation models struggle to handle medical time series data due to their inherent challenges, including irregular intervals, heterogeneous sampling rates, and frequent missing values. To address these challenges, we introduce MIRA, a unified foundation model specifically designed for medical time series forecasting. MIRA incorporates a Continuous-Time Rotary Positional Encoding that enables fine-grained modeling of variable time intervals, a frequency-specific mixture-of-experts layer that routes computation across latent frequency regimes to further promote temporal specialization, and a Continuous Dynamics Extrapolation Block based on Neural ODE that models the continuous trajectory of latent states, enabling accurate forecasting at arbitrary target timestamps. Pretrained on a large-scale and diverse medical corpus comprising over 454 billion time points collect from publicly available datasets, MIRA achieves reductions in forecasting errors by an average of 10% and 7% in out-of-distribution and in-distribution scenarios, respectively, when compared to other zero-shot and fine-tuned baselines. We also introduce a comprehensive benchmark spanning multiple downstream clinical tasks, establishing a foundation for future research in medical time series modeling.

医疗时序基础模型神经ODE时间建模

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