arXiv:2506.08325stat.MLcs.LG2025-06

无需模型假设,用核方法量化回归不确定性

Model-Free Kernel Conformal Depth Measures Algorithm for Uncertainty Quantification in Regression Models in Separable Hilbert Spaces

  • 基于核均值嵌入与深度测度构建无模型预测区间
  • 在有限样本下实现非渐近的置信保证,收敛速度快
  • 适用于函数型数据与高维空间,适合健康医疗个性化推荐

深度测度是定义高维多元数据、函数型数据及随机图等复杂随机对象水平集的强大工具。尽管其理论性质优越,但将其融入回归建模以提供预测区间仍属研究空白。本文提出一种新型无模型不确定性量化算法,基于条件深度测度——特别是条件核均值嵌入与整合深度测度。该算法可在分离希尔伯特空间中定义预测与容忍区间。核均值嵌入确保预测区估计具有更快收敛速度。为提升有限样本下的实用性,引入符合性预测变体,提供边际、非渐近保证。同时建立条件与无条件一致性结果,并在某些同方差设定下获得快速收敛率。通过大量模拟实验评估算法在各类函数型数据与传统欧氏场景下的表现。最后,在数字健康领域应用,针对身体活动提供个性化建议,验证方法的实际价值。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Depth measures are powerful tools for defining level sets in emerging, non--standard, and complex random objects such as high-dimensional multivariate data, functional data, and random graphs. Despite their favorable theoretical properties, the integration of depth measures into regression modeling to provide prediction regions remains a largely underexplored area of research. To address this gap, we propose a novel, model-free uncertainty quantification algorithm based on conditional depth measures--specifically, conditional kernel mean embeddings and an integrated depth measure. These new algorithms can be used to define prediction and tolerance regions when predictors and responses are defined in separable Hilbert spaces. The use of kernel mean embeddings ensures faster convergence rates in prediction region estimation. To enhance the practical utility of the algorithms with finite samples, we also introduce a conformal prediction variant that provides marginal, non-asymptotic guarantees for the derived prediction regions. Additionally, we establish both conditional and unconditional consistency results, as well as fast convergence rates in certain homoscedastic settings. We evaluate the finite--sample performance of our model in extensive simulation studies involving various types of functional data and traditional Euclidean scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the practical relevance of our approach through a digital health application related to physical activity, aiming to provide personalized recommendations

不确定性量化回归分析核方法函数数据

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