用深度学习生成台风快速增强的合成数据,提升罕见极端事件检测能力
Spatiotemporal deep learning models for detection of rapid intensification in cyclones
- 设计基于深度学习的时空数据增强框架,生成逼真台风演变模式
- 在真实数据基础上,检测准确率显著提升,空间坐标为关键输入特征
- 为极端天气事件的合成数据生成提供新思路,适合气象与气候研究者
台风快速增强是指24小时内风速增加超过30节的极端现象,发生概率低,导致数据集严重类别不平衡。多种因素影响其发生,传统机器学习模型难以应对。本文评估了深度学习、集成学习和数据增强框架在台风快速增强检测中的表现。由于常规数据增强方法无法生成符合快速增强特征的时空模式,我们采用深度学习模型生成具有真实感的空间坐标与风速数据,以缓解类别不平衡问题。同时,在数据增强框架中引入深度学习分类器,用于区分快速与非快速增强事件。实验表明,数据增强有效提升了检测性能,空间坐标作为输入特征至关重要。该工作为极端事件的时空合成数据生成提供了新路径。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Cyclone rapid intensification is the rapid increase in cyclone wind intensity, exceeding a threshold of 30 knots, within 24 hours. Rapid intensification is considered an extreme event during a cyclone, and its occurrence is relatively rare, contributing to a class imbalance in the dataset. A diverse array of factors influences the likelihood of a cyclone undergoing rapid intensification, further complicating the task for conventional machine learning models. In this paper, we evaluate deep learning, ensemble learning and data augmentation frameworks to detect cyclone rapid intensification based on wind intensity and spatial coordinates. We note that conventional data augmentation methods cannot be utilised for generating spatiotemporal patterns replicating cyclones that undergo rapid intensification. Therefore, our framework employs deep learning models to generate spatial coordinates and wind intensity that replicate cyclones to address the class imbalance problem of rapid intensification. We also use a deep learning model for the classification module within the data augmentation framework to differentiate between rapid and non-rapid intensification events during a cyclone. Our results show that data augmentation improves the results for rapid intensification detection in cyclones, and spatial coordinates play a critical role as input features to the given models. This paves the way for research in synthetic data generation for spatiotemporal data with extreme events.
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