arXiv:2506.08939cs.LG2025-06被引 6

KARMA通过动态分解与多尺度Mamba高效预测多变量长期时间序列。

KARMA: A Multilevel Decomposition Hybrid Mamba Framework for Multivariate Long-Term Time Series Forecasting

  • 提出自适应时频分解模块,动态提取趋势与季节成分。
  • 在8个真实数据集上精度超越主流模型,计算效率提升显著。
  • 适合需要高精度长序列预测的工业与金融场景。

多变量长期高效时间序列预测是诸多实际应用的关键需求,时间序列中存在复杂的交织动态特征,需依赖分解建模。传统分解方法单一且依赖固定规则,难以挖掘序列潜在信息并适应复杂序列的动态特性。另一方面,基于Transformer的预测模型因计算复杂度高,难以有效建模长序列及复杂动态关系。为此,本文提出KARMA框架,包含自适应时间通道分解模块(ATCD),可动态提取趋势与季节成分;进一步引入混合频域-时域分解模块(HFTD),将序列分解为频域与时域分量。这些分量由多尺度Mamba-based KarmaBlock协同处理全局与局部信息。在涵盖多个领域的8个真实数据集上的实验表明,KARMA在预测精度与计算效率方面均显著优于主流基线方法。代码与完整结果见:https://github.com/yedadasd/KARMA

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Multivariate long-term and efficient time series forecasting is a key requirement for a variety of practical applications, and there are complex interleaving time dynamics in time series data that require decomposition modeling. Traditional time series decomposition methods are single and rely on fixed rules, which are insufficient for mining the potential information of the series and adapting to the dynamic characteristics of complex series. On the other hand, the Transformer-based models for time series forecasting struggle to effectively model long sequences and intricate dynamic relationships due to their high computational complexity. To overcome these limitations, we introduce KARMA, with an Adaptive Time Channel Decomposition module (ATCD) to dynamically extract trend and seasonal components. It further integrates a Hybrid Frequency-Time Decomposition module (HFTD) to further decompose Series into frequency-domain and time-domain. These components are coupled with multi-scale Mamba-based KarmaBlock to efficiently process global and local information in a coordinated manner. Experiments on eight real-world datasets from diverse domains well demonstrated that KARMA significantly outperforms mainstream baseline methods in both predictive accuracy and computational efficiency. Code and full results are available at this repository: https://github.com/yedadasd/KARMA

时间序列Mamba分解模型长序列预测

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