提出专用于多变量长期时间序列的傅里叶神经滤波器,无需额外技巧即达顶尖性能。
Multivariate Long-term Time Series Forecasting with Fourier Neural Filter
- 用傅里叶神经滤波器统一处理时间域与频域信息,自然拓展至空间建模。
- 在11个跨领域数据集上达成当前最优,且无需信号分解等辅助技术。
- 理论证明其梯度流动与表征能力优于现有统一或串行架构,适合科学与工业场景。
多变量长期时间序列预测面临同时捕捉变量内时序依赖与变量间空间相关性的挑战。现有方法多复用自然语言或计算机视觉的骨干网络(如Transformer),未能充分考虑时间序列的独特性质(如周期性)。研究界缺乏具有时序特有归纳偏置的专用骨干网络,通常依赖通用骨干并辅以额外技术(如信号分解)。本文提出FNF作为骨干、DBD作为架构,分别提供优异的学习能力与最优学习路径。理论分析表明,FNF可在单一骨干中统一处理局部时域与全局频域信息,并自然扩展至空间建模;信息瓶颈理论证明,相较于现有统一或串行架构,DBD具备更优的梯度流动与表征能力。在涵盖能源、气象、交通、环境与自然五个领域的11个公开基准数据集上,实验验证了其在一致超参数设置下的最先进性能。值得注意的是,该方法未使用任何辅助技术即取得成果,表明精心设计的神经架构可有效捕捉时间序列内在特性,有望推动科学与工业应用中的时序建模变革。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Multivariate long-term time series forecasting has been suffering from the challenge of capturing both temporal dependencies within variables and spatial correlations across variables simultaneously. Current approaches predominantly repurpose backbones from natural language processing or computer vision (e.g., Transformers), which fail to adequately address the unique properties of time series (e.g., periodicity). The research community lacks a dedicated backbone with temporal-specific inductive biases, instead relying on domain-agnostic backbones supplemented with auxiliary techniques (e.g., signal decomposition). We introduce FNF as the backbone and DBD as the architecture to provide excellent learning capabilities and optimal learning pathways for spatio-temporal modeling, respectively. Our theoretical analysis proves that FNF unifies local time-domain and global frequency-domain information processing within a single backbone that extends naturally to spatial modeling, while information bottleneck theory demonstrates that DBD provides superior gradient flow and representation capacity compared to existing unified or sequential architectures. Our empirical evaluation across 11 public benchmark datasets spanning five domains (energy, meteorology, transportation, environment, and nature) confirms state-of-the-art performance with consistent hyperparameter settings. Notably, our approach achieves these results without any auxiliary techniques, suggesting that properly designed neural architectures can capture the inherent properties of time series, potentially transforming time series modeling in scientific and industrial applications.
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