arXiv:2506.09272cs.LGstat.ML2025-06ICML被引 8

用大模型设计模拟器结构,再用无梯度方法校准,提升真实世界预测能力。

G-Sim: Generative Simulations with Large Language Models and Gradient-Free Calibration

  • 大模型迭代生成模拟器的因果结构与组件关系。
  • 采用无梯度、无需似然函数的方法校准参数,适配随机和不可导模拟器。
  • 融合领域先验与实证数据,适合医疗、物流等复杂系统决策支持。

构建可靠的模拟器对于医疗、物流等关键领域中的“如果……会怎样”问题至关重要。现有方法常因无法超越历史数据或使用大语言模型(LLM)时出现偏差而受限。本文提出G-Sim,一种混合框架,通过协同大模型驱动的结构设计与严格的实证校准,实现模拟器的自动化构建。G-Sim利用大模型在迭代循环中提出并优化模拟器的核心组件与因果关系,受领域知识引导。随后,通过灵活的校准技术将该结构与现实对齐,可采用无需似然函数且不依赖梯度的方法,如无梯度优化直接估计参数,或基于仿真的推断获得参数后验分布,从而处理非可微与随机性模拟器。通过结合领域先验与实证证据,G-Sim生成可靠、具有因果意义的模拟器,缓解数据效率低下的问题,支持复杂决策系统的稳健干预。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Constructing robust simulators is essential for asking "what if?" questions and guiding policy in critical domains like healthcare and logistics. However, existing methods often struggle, either failing to generalize beyond historical data or, when using Large Language Models (LLMs), suffering from inaccuracies and poor empirical alignment. We introduce G-Sim, a hybrid framework that automates simulator construction by synergizing LLM-driven structural design with rigorous empirical calibration. G-Sim employs an LLM in an iterative loop to propose and refine a simulator's core components and causal relationships, guided by domain knowledge. This structure is then grounded in reality by estimating its parameters using flexible calibration techniques. Specifically, G-Sim can leverage methods that are both likelihood-free and gradient-free with respect to the simulator, such as gradient-free optimization for direct parameter estimation or simulation-based inference for obtaining a posterior distribution over parameters. This allows it to handle non-differentiable and stochastic simulators. By integrating domain priors with empirical evidence, G-Sim produces reliable, causally-informed simulators, mitigating data-inefficiency and enabling robust system-level interventions for complex decision-making.

模拟器大模型因果推理

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