用生成模型解决网络流量缺失下的实时预测问题
Real-Time Network Traffic Forecasting with Missing Data: A Generative Model Approach
- 将流量预测转为张量补全问题,利用生成模型捕捉数据低秩结构
- 在真实数据集上实现100毫秒内预测,平均误差低于0.002
- 适合需要高实时性与处理缺失数据的网络管理场景
实时网络流量预测对网络管理和资源提前分配至关重要。现有方法通常假设数据完整,但实际中常因人为或自然因素导致数据缺失。本文提出一种基于生成模型的实时流量预测方法,将预测任务建模为张量补全问题,并引入预训练生成模型以捕获数据的内在低秩结构。该模型能将紧凑的隐空间表示映射回张量空间,避免直接优化高维张量,显著简化优化过程并支持实时预测。我们建立了理论恢复保证,量化了预测误差边界。在真实数据集上的实验表明,该方法在阿比林(Abilene)数据集上实现了100毫秒内的精准预测,平均绝对误差(MAE)低于0.002。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Real-time network traffic forecasting is crucial for network management and early resource allocation. Existing network traffic forecasting approaches operate under the assumption that the network traffic data is fully observed. However, in practical scenarios, the collected data are often incomplete due to various human and natural factors. In this paper, we propose a generative model approach for real-time network traffic forecasting with missing data. Firstly, we model the network traffic forecasting task as a tensor completion problem. Secondly, we incorporate a pre-trained generative model to achieve the low-rank structure commonly associated with tensor completion. The generative model effectively captures the intrinsic low-rank structure of network traffic data during pre-training and enables the mapping from a compact latent representation to the tensor space. Thirdly, rather than directly optimizing the high-dimensional tensor, we optimize its latent representation, which simplifies the optimization process and enables real-time forecasting. We also establish a theoretical recovery guarantee that quantifies the error bound of the proposed approach. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach achieves accurate network traffic forecasting within 100 ms, with a mean absolute error (MAE) below 0.002, as validated on the Abilene dataset.
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